Awoonga, every time you post an unsubstantiated, derisory down ramp about AVB I will take it personally.
When you were working I used to always find it a little bemusing that you had the time to post 30, 40, 50 times a day...There is rarely anything to back your opinions in the way of fact yet you are usually the prevalent poster in the forum.
What has really got up my nose this time around is that we have just been presented with a very detailed report from the company, which is fact, but you chose to twist it to your own purposes. for example;
"After reviewing the Q3, and seeing that engineering design is not complete and finance is still no further advanced from what we were told last time, I see little chance of construction starting before Christmas."
In reality, the last quarter has seen "Basic design is 60% completed and detailed engineering 20% completed." move to "Basic design engineering is 97% complete, while detailed engineering is now 54% complete " as the quarterly only need focus on July-September they may have progressed further by now. They certainly aren't wasting their time posting on HC so maybe they're getting some work done?
I would have thought that this amount of progress in 3 months augers well for the management of the process. AVB have stated construction will start when funding is agreed, they don't even intend to wait for draw down but they do want agreement before commencing construction. There is no point in having equipment in the way before that time. (Whether it's before xmas or not)
You said, "Even AVB are now considering holidays and wet weather, (maybe they do read HC after all)."
I spoke with the CEO a year ago and was advised that they were taking weather factors into account. To suggest that they would only do so because some someone on HC suggested it is simply derisory...and I insist on calling a spade a spade or a troll a troll whichever the case may be. (
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Troll_(Internet))
You said, "Construction duration is 6 to 9 months." I'm impressed, a fact!
You said, "My prediction is commissioning Q4 2015 at best, most likely Q1 2016 based on what I have seen so far this year." we're all entitled to an opinion Awoonga but I'd happily have a little side bet with you, how about if no commissioning by xmas 2015 I give you x amount of AVB shares and if commissioning has occurred you give me x amount? Suggest a number. I actually believe based on what I know that a June 30 2015 commissioning give or take a month is a realistic target (and yes there may be delays but all they can do is make a realistic analysis now).
You said, "The Ball Mill and Floatation Cells didn't sail?" How do you know? Where is the substantiation? maybe I'm wrong and this knowledge is out there but I am unaware of an answer either way.
Stage 1 update was published on 7/10/14 and the Quarterly on 30/10/14. In the intervening 23 days you wanted what? The mill installed? As stated by the company on 7/10/14 "...Sailing is scheduled for mid October, this will have the items docked, unloaded and on route to Carajas before the end of November...."
That obviously needs further time to actually get to the Carajas and after that they install it. (Have you heard about the bandits that try to steal everything driving along the highways in Brazil? I'm glad a ball mill is heavy and I hope that like many they use armed guards)
You said, "Adjudicating" subcontractors? Perhaps that was meant to be requesting "Expressions of Interest"?
If so that would not be in accordance with ASX listing rules that require transparency but what evidence do you have to allude that the directors are trying to mislead the market?
PS For transparency and not trying to enter mine is bigger than yours type competition.
My career was in Systems Analysis, design and project implementation in a niche field. I have three degrees and a wheel barrow filled with AVB shares. I've made million and lost them. Took a business to the top of its field then sold it to retire (and then LYC turned up but that's another story) You could argue my role was to design the project and hand it over to the project managers to stuff up.
