I'm trying to think through what's happening here. Post the...

I'm trying to think through what's happening here.

Post the underwritten capital raise at 0.008, there's 902,742,888 shares on issue.

We have seen a substantial holder notice from Richard Jenkins, but nothing from Peak Asset Management, who picked up 109.8m of the underwritten shortfall shares, if they did not already own some or subscribe as part of the entitlement offer. By all accounts they should own approx 12% of the company. I believe that a substantial holder notice should be filed within 5 days of owning over 5.00% of share on issue. So not sure why that has not been disclosed.

In the last 10 days, we have seen 308m in volume traded, with 114m of that on the 17th Nov alone. Since that big day, the VWAP has held steady around 0.022 and the buying seems pretty strong with a decent portion being cleared over Chi-X rather than ASX, which is often an indication of large brokers / institutional dealing.

If anyone has broker data to show which brokers have bought/sold and volumes for the last 10 days or so, could they post it here? I'm aware there is normally a 3 day lag on this data so we might not be able to analyse what happened on the huge volume day of the 17th for a couple more days.

I guess at this stage we don't know if Peak Asset Management has sold some or all of their underwritten shortfall shares, they would be sitting on a tidy profit (from 0.008 up to a high of 0.026, but most volume has gone through at 0.022 or thereabouts).

If we some some new substantial holder notices in the not too distant future, we might be able to work it out. I guess this week we have had the pump, but I am not sure what I think about whether there is still a coordinated dump to come. I'm tending to think its less likely, as I don't think retail / small shareholders would have soaked up the volume that has gone through.

Time will tell.