Trying to set out the key possible scenarios for MAY from this...

Trying to set out the key possible scenarios for MAY from this point on - and estimate their likelihood - here's my take - keen to hear other's thoughts

Scenario 1
There is no oil down there
Likelihood: 0%
Rational: Seismic data, history of drilling in Block 9, confirmation of massive oil reservoirs from McD...there is a massive amount of oil down there

Scenario 2
The oil is not of export grade
Likelihood: 0%
Rational: Every oil test to date has found oil that is at acceptable API levels, in fact refineries in the region have been designed to work with lower API oil

Scenario 3
The oil is too hard to get out of the ground at an acceptable rate - lack of pressure etc
Likelihood: 0%
Rational: The deeper reservoirs have plenty of pressure; the shallower reservoirs have some pressure; With modern techniques and multiple wells this oil can be extracted at 10's thousands of barrels per day from any reservoir

Scenario 4
Cuba is too difficult to operate from - MAY won't get paid etc
Likelihood: 0%
Rational: Whilst Cuba has challenges there is no way it will 'stiff' Sonangol, Sherritt, and MAY - Cuba wants this oil project to succeed as much as anyone; Cuba already has oil fields and pipelines and deep sea ports for tankers; it didn't get all this via 'stiffing' everyone

Scenario 5
This project will hit substantial delays
Likelihood: 30%
Rational: This is very possible; lots of moving parts and things can 'break'; but the teams are clearly trying to mitigate risks of setbacks; and we are on the downslope to production...

Scenario 6
There are no buyers of the oil
Likelihood: 0%
Rational: Oil is needed everywhere on earth; there will be a queue of buyers...