All of the larger brokers I have looked at that cover MML are predicting strong earnings despite assumptions of significantly lower POG. That gives us strong downside protection from a valuation point (generally on estimated PE around 4.5 on $1150 gold). My numbers are similar (although more conservative despite a higher POG assumption at spot) so I'm not just relying on the brokers estimates. Most here would be more interested in broker numbers than in my numbers which is why I usually quote broker estimates.
What if their POG assumptions are proven too conservative? POG is trading 10% above some of those assumptions (around $1150).
A 10% better POG (current price) will see roughly a 20% increase in earnings compared to earnings estimated by brokers on the lower POG assumptions.
There is also further strong upside to broker estimates if the company meets its own target of up to 200,000oz/yr (most brokers assume up to 150koz) and further upside from development of the high grade Bananghilig ore through an upgraded Co-O plant to potentially push production beyond 200koz/yr.
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