This remains an intrinsically high risk investment. Those who...

This remains an intrinsically high risk investment. Those who maintain that they are 99.8% confident are either fooling themselves or dishonestly trying to fool others. That said, I’m so far underwater my best option (atm) is to hang on and see where this ends.

What are the risks? Management is certainly one. It turns out that mining and brewing are completely different businesses. Every year or so there is a new messiah who joins the team. (Hello, Tolga?) Hopefully, the latest one will actually deliver the goods. Another risk is Africa (naturally), but also Cameroon specifically, which has never hosted a successful mining project. (Maybe we will help them break their duck.) But, for me, perhaps the biggest risk is our Chinese strategic partner. They hold most of the cards and how they play those cards will determine if we make any money and how much. Don’t forget that, in our case, BFS may as well stand for Beijing Financing Study. We’re told an English language copy will in due course be delivered to us. But we seem to have little say over when, or over how it will value our little project.

I hold another stock (approx same amount as CAY) where I thought I’d done my dough after a devastating “sovereign risk event”. But now it looks like I’ll actually make a small profit instead. Rabbits can come out of hats, sometimes. But the lack of reliable information from CAY is troubling.

Faith, by definition, is belief without evidence (otherwise it’s called science). The question we each have to answer for ourselves is: at what point does our faith run out? For me, it’s not yet. But, win lose or draw, I expect to be out of Africa by end of this F/Y.

C