The roll-back of the Russia-Ukraine proxy war project has shifted into gear.

Ukraine could face defeat in 2024. Here's how that might look

The former commander of Britain's Joint Forces Command has warned that Ukraine could face defeat by Russia in 2024.General Sir Richard Barrons has told the BBC there is "a serious risk" of Ukraine losing the war this year.The reason, he says, is "because Ukraine may come to feel it can't win".

"And when it gets to that point, why will people want to fight and die any longer, just to defend the indefensible?"Ukraine is not yet at that point.But its forces are running critically low on ammunition, troops and air defences. Its much-heralded counter-offensive last year failed to dislodge the Russians from ground they had seized and now Moscow is gearing up for a summer offensive.So what will that look like and what are its likely strategic objectives?"The shape of the Russian offensive that's going to come is pretty clear," says Gen Barrons."We are seeing Russia batter away at the front line, employing a 5-to-1 advantage in artillery, ammunition, and a surplus of people reinforced by the use of newish weapons."

These include the FAB glide bomb, an adapted Soviet-era "dumb bomb" fitted with fins, GPS guidance and 1500kg of high explosive, that is wreaking havoc on Ukrainian defences.

"At some point this summer," says Gen Barrons, "we expect to see a major Russian offensive, with the intent of doing more than smash forward with small gains to perhaps try and break through the Ukrainian lines.

"And if that happens we would run the risk of Russian forces breaking through and then exploiting into areas of Ukraine where the Ukrainian armed forces cannot stop them."

"One of the challenges the Ukrainians have," says Dr Jack Watling, senior research fellow in land warfare at the Whitehall thinktank the Royal United Services Institute (Rusi), "is that the Russians can choose where they commit their forces.

"It's a very long front line and the Ukrainians need to be able to defend all of it."

Which, of course, they can't.