IMO if Turkey (a NATO member at present) blocked off the...

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moorookamick

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19/04/24

08:58

Post #: 73418943
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Originally posted by moorookamick: ↑

IMO war is like a poker game: while one may have a general
strategy beforehand, tactics have to be adopted during
play to counter the opponents strengths and exploit weaknesses.

With respect to this war, one weapon such as Patriot Systems
is not going to determine likely outcome (all eggs in the one basket gig)
but instead overall concerted tactics to wear the enemy down and
eventually win.

IMO that will not likely happen in this war because as European countries
fall into recession (Germany & the UK already there with France & Spain on the brink)
financial and military support for the Ukraine will likely wane forcing a compromise....
ceasefire & a negotiated settlement.

While it is understandable that Ukrainians are very concerned regarding their national
security, it would seem that Russians are also concerned about Russia's national security
particularly the implication of ring fencing the Black Sea with NATO members . The majority
of Russians have experienced the impact of the US led Cold War on Russia and themselves
personally and no doubt they see the US led NATO push to extend NATO to all Russian
western borders as merely a continuation of the Cold War

To be neutral about this war, its is necessary to see both points of view (both Ukrainian & Russian)
rather than a rusted-on-bigoted view.

Whatever the outcome of this war, the Ukraine will never be the same and those on all sides
who have contributed to that simply have to take responsibility. The benchmark for such
an analysis is the Ukraine prior to the Maidan Revolution/Coup, IMO , and mistakes were
made by both sides (Ukraine/US/NATO & Russia) evidenced by the current state of play.

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IMO if Turkey (a NATO member at present) blocked off the Bosporus
to Russian Naval shipping, that Russia would invade Turkey even though
Turkey is a member of NATO. That, more likely than not, would cause WW3.

That said, both Russia & China will likely offer all kinds of incentives for
Turkey to leave NATO. The US has already alienated itself from the Current
Turkish regime by harbouring the alternative President as evidenced in the failed
coup (no doubt there are CIA fingerprints there) in 2019 against Erdogan.

IMO, this Ukrainian War has further implications for the region and in
particular how Turkey may fair out which is currently sandwiched
between the Ukrainian & Israeli wars.
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