With the current state of play there's a 50/50 chance of either side gaining territory, IMO.
That would put the status quo as average .
I agree with you that if the Ukraine manages to push back the Russians close to the Black Sea, then the Ukraine would be in a much stronger position to negotiate.
But if Russia advances further, say takes the remaining territory of the 4 Oblasts that it has laid claim to, then the Ukraine would be in a much weaker position to negotiate.
IMO, its more probable than not, that the Ukraine will ever reclaim its pre 2013 territory and for that reason, its better to negotiate now rather than later.. To enter negotiations does not mean that either side has to agree .....instead it would re-qualifies the where both sides' red lines are now.
