lecram wrote earlier: "everything else here on HC posted is guess work, hearsay or speculation".
What a highly questionable & spurious statement to make.
There are plenty of facts around about AVB, its management, the company’s performance and many other issues that have unfolded in recent years.
Some people just don't want to deal with them.
One has to question the critical reasoning skills of someone who would make such a statement about the topic in question.
Clearly bias is showing its hand.
And of course, then there is the equally spurious statement - just passed off as fact by Kalenn this very day - that finance HASN'T taken 2 years.
That is an absolute howler...is it any wonder there are sceptics among us here on HC?
And for the benefit of kalenn - who perception of reality, at the very least, is curiously altered - here is the ASX HEADLINE from June 2013:
KEY TERMS AGREED ON US$58M DEBT FACILLITY FOR ANTAS NORTH COPPER MINE
It goes on: “The company is very pleased to announce that it has obtained from and agreed with Banco Votorantim a proposal with a debt facility in the principal amount of up to $58m for the development of the Antas North”
That’s the reality of the situation - June 2013
That’s when the finance facility was first trumpeted by the company - and they even issued a press release to the Australian Fin Review as part of the announcement.
And for 2 years now – as pointed out by Awoonga this very same afternoon – we have been waiting (and still waiting) for it to be delivered.
And so as of 6.48pm tonight that is two very questionable “alternate” viewpoints posted by Kalenn within a matter of hours. Firstly to tell us how bleedingly obvious it was that dilution was always going to happen (yet he was an emphatic denier of such at the time back in 2013) and now this "pearler" about how finance process has only taken since September 2014.
And to think that I have been accused of re-writing history by this very same Poster.
Shame shame shame.
Nevertheless, moving forward....as Jack Nicholson (Joker) "And now it's time for 'Who Do You Trust'?! Hubba hubba hubba, money money money, who do you trust?"
And so - enough with the re-interpretation of recent AVB history by Kalenn, let us turn now to the matters of finance – the ASX Release of 27th January 2015.
"interrogation of the term sheets has concluded......" it proclaimed.
There is no doubt management were clearly expecting some closure on this matter by now - they said "before the end of the quarter".
They were specific about that.
They have missed…. yet again.
I would suggest these people need to start choosing the language of their ASX releases far more carefully because the delays of the past (and the present!) truly will start to impose itself further on the perceptions of both share holders and the broader ASX market.
Like Kalenn wrote earlier today, I would agree “some very intense, complex commercial negotiations going down”.
Nevertheless…and to use two examples from the market today (Vocation Group - VET and Cokal - CKA) AVB should have by now released a Market Update. VET did it this morning in relation to a trade sale they are undertaking of one its businesses (Endeavour Education). The market had an expectation of the sale being completed by 1st April, but because it hasn’t VET decided it appropriate to issues an update (see the ASX release of 9.15am this morning). Similarly, Cokal (CKA) are in the process of responding to potential unsolicited takeover bid that was announced to the market back on 3rd March. CKA management aren’t exactly the best communicators on the ASX themselves but even theythought it appropriate to issue an “Update” on how the takeover situation was proceeding (see ASX release of 9.45am).
Shame then on AVB – and moreso in view of:
a) their tardy track record of PR
b) teh sheer number of missed timelines and
c) their commitment at the AGM (And in their Annual Reports) to improve shareholder communications.
No news. No updates. And so we are all going into the Easter having heard nix.
Where does that leave us?
Clearly, more questions are being put to AVB about the terms of the loan. Yet, so confident were the inferences emanating from the 27th Jan Finance Release that management took the decision that “funding progress" should "trigger a return to Pedra Branca” and they promptly started recommencing PB drilling immediately.
Awoonga made the valid point earlier today, that AVB have ample cash to fund this drilling. Yes, it’s true. I acknowledge that fact.
But let’s not forget what AVB also said in that very same January ASX release:
They stated very plainly how it (AVB) needed those cash flows from the AN sand pit to fund the development expenditure of PB. I do believe they even used the word “align” in respect to the two events (last sentence, 2nd paragraph of page 1)
I cannot imagine it is AVB's preferred course that finance negotiations drag on too much longer because it will only delay the mine start up and ….commencement of the cash flows they require. Sure…they have cash reserves but nevertheless the development expenditure – in the form of further drilling needed to firm up the PB resource (it isn’t a reserve yet) - has already commenced and the finance side still not sorted.
Once again anticipated timelines have been stretched.
Anyway that is why I remain cynical and sceptical about this whole outfit – when does rubber hit the road? Will they ever build a mine? When will they even get this sand pit started? What terms are still being nutted out? How much further will the sand pit construction be delayed.
What was that word TP used for AVB? Was it “credibility”.
Ah yes – back in 2008 – in relation to getting projects “up and running in the shorter term”
I do believe he said “It’s an aggressive approach to business” and that “Avanco will be one that is going to get to the finishing line”.
If only every sand pit development was as aggressive as AVB in its 7-year race to the starting line.
...and not the starting line for their mine either....its the starting line to the sand pit they need to build to generate the cash flows they need to fund the loan they need to fund the development of the mine they hope to one day build that will generate some profits
...and thus indeed make AVB "the next mid tier copper play".
Pip Pip! Enjoy your Easter break everyone.
Coop
AVB Price at posting:
7.4¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Not Held
