Support for the ALP has increased 3.5% to 53.5% to put the party well ahead of the Coalition on 46.5% (down 3.5%) on a two-party preferred basis. If a Federal Election was held now the Albanese Government would be returned with an increased majority the latest Roy Morgan survey shows.
There was a swing to the ALP in all six States with the biggest swings in NSW and Victoria, largely reversing the result of a week ago. The swing to the ALP came after the ABS announced lower than expected inflation in January of 3.4% last week – all but removing the chance of an interest rate rise in mid-March and a definite positive for the Government.
The ALP retained the seat of Dunkley despite a swing of 3.6% to the Coalition. The Coalition primary vote increased 6.8% to 39.3%, however this result is below the 40.4% received by the Coalition, United Australia Party and One Nation at the last election.
The seat of Dunkley is diverse and swings to the ALP in suburbs such as Seaford South and Frankston South were enough to counteract swings to the Coalition candidate, local Mayor Nathan Conroy, in places including Mt. Eliza and Langwarrin. To win the seat the Coalition needed to secure swings across all the different areas, and it failed to do so.
Primary support for Coalition was down 1.5% to 36.5% while support for the ALP recovered, up 2.5% to 34%; also helping the ALP was an increase in Greens support, up 1.5% to 13.5% and a decrease in One Nation support, down 1.5% to 3.5%. Support for Independents & Other Parties was down 1% to 12.5%.
The latest Roy Morgan survey is based on interviewing a representative cross-section of 1,679 Australian electors from February 26 – March 3, 2024.
