Did a fair bit of personal analysis on the Commerce Resources Ashram PEA. Obviously a PEA is not particularly accurate, figures quoted are claimed accurate to ±30%.
Regardless of the fact that it is only a PEA, there is a load of great info in here. Page 159 IMO is a real eye opener. $/t cost of concentrate through a hydromet plant to produce carbonate is shown as $8515, and this cost is increased by 30% as Commerce wanted to utilize a contractor for this. https://www.commerceresources.com/assets/docs/reports/2015-01-07_GG-PEA-Report.pdf
Pensana's latest presentation showed concentrate to carbonate at $2000/t - $30000/t. I wasn't able to find pricing based on the asian metal website for MREC, which is what Hasting's original MOUs with Chinese refineries were listed as being based on.
I do recall somewhere in a recent Hastings presentation as well as in the above Ashram PEA, that mention of a 25% and a 20% discount respectively was applied on oxide values. Based on current NdPr prices, this would align quite nicely with the $30,000/t Carbonate. Even if we use conservative numbers more like $20,000/t the margins in going down the Carbonate route on a % basis would be far greater than the current concentrate route (this is particularly important at current LOW NdPr prices).
Anyone can play around with the margins based on their best guess of carbonate pricing and costs based on Ashram PEA, Hastings DFS, and Mkango PFS. If you use 15,000/tpa Carbonate (my preliminary guesstimate) then you're looking at an even more attractive project.
PM8 Price at posting:
23.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
