All Ordinaries (ASX:XAO) - Short Term Trading New Year: 27 Dec - 1 Jan, 36984431, page-87 - HotCopper | ASX Share Prices, Stock Market & Share Trading Forum

Originally posted by Sector: ↑

@952i

Really great read/ review over a coffee...or was that 2...well done
I liked yur references to the transport indexes.

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Thankyou sector,
You've been a great contributor and help to alot here yourself with your level headed-ness, sometimes brutal lols.

Originally posted by Anton Chigurh: ↑

Nice post, 952.
Being willing to put your losers up like that shows a lack of ego that isn't common. Combined with your research skills, I'm sure you'll make a good game of this in the long run.

The ones you've lost on this year, I'm sure you did your research and knew the RR going in. Systemic market risk is a tough one to combat, which is what we've seen in specs this year. I'm sure we've all had our rear ends handed to us this year on at least a few names. Stops probably the key, as always.

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Thanks AC, I've always mentioned to be open about losers, I think the first 1.5years in the game the most frustrating part was just reading everyone constantly talking about how much they're winning, how good their calls are and how they can do no wrong etc etc. and I was sitting thinking "how badly am I going wrong picking losers", I wish someone would've told me it's normal to lose lol...over time once you familiarise yourself with the market you begin to realise everyone cops a beating and makes bad calls..completely natural and part of the experience.
The RR on the losers were great imo, what failed was as the market conditions and thematics changed significantly the RR got skewed against me and I failed to act upon it and be flexible - something to improve in 2019.

Originally posted by minoil: ↑

great post 952....

i do share your pain with TAO....i think a few got caught in that, and i imagine a few of the top holders will be baying for blood....i let it get away by watching it sag on low volume, and never really saw a day in which i could have made a clean exit....so, i guess now, i hang on, and add a few, given its value is compelling. As for GTT.....i've booted them into the sin bin, along with a few others, and as for JB, well, i'll reserve my judgement for now
You have a couple in your list i like, and have been grabbing quite a handful of OVL....AVW is another.

Yes, WFE.....one of those stocks that come along once in a blue moon. Its been a year since i've had a stock that got so much attention from me, and one i could get my teeth into........i think i've found it, and, i've decided to break my rule of not tipping or calling, purely 'cos i see this one as an astounding opportunity for next year.

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Yeah mate TAO was handled poorly. Part of the problem is macro issues which is out of everyones hands, but plenty of compliance IPO's that have been around for quite a few months are performing far better than TAO - KRX, TMR, SLZ (Even after releasing empty drills), CR1, TIN, ARN, etc. The only one I can think of beating TAO is CY5.
So clearly something beyond just a "weak market" went wrong. The other companies kept newsflow going, appointed new players/advisors, had directors buying or were stern with direction, lead managers provided OM support to keep interest flowing.
GTT I haven't sin binned them just yet (perhaps I'm too forgiving for my own good), but I wont be getting into their future plays unless they can pull 5bags from here on TAO. I've learnt any team in the market can make a come back from a losing streak and to remain open minded.
Honestly they had such a good register, high soph ownership, Brewer and Connelly class team, GTT just pulled 30bags on AVZ, 10bags on 4CE and now all spec markets got their eyes on TAO which couldve cemented their reputation for a while just putting focus here and holding the 15cent level and could've done what the other compliance shells did as above. Instead they ventured off into few other companies and spread themselves thin which imo was a poor move. Brewer's released a statement in a magazine they're looking in Africa for Gold Acq. Connelly wont have any interest in steering the ship yet until the acq. is completed he comes in at later stages to move it from exploration to production, very smart operator I was impressed at his resume (2 Billion dollar co's + WAF, PIR, EVR, TGS) if it wasn't for him I would've been long gone lol.
I could probs come on for free as an advisor to some for these smaller brokers just to give my thoughts on strategy I feel some are far too disconnected from what market/shareholders are looking for.

Anyways more than enough ranting from me.
Good to see you on OVL mate, AVW I've noticed fresh blood too. NAE another one CPS has gotten their teeth into. CPS another team that are too rich for their own good haha and spread thin, they've got themselves across 200+ ASX companies. I've just run some code to narrow to only where they've been buying lately to narrow it down to the fresh blood/turnarounds which makes it easier to pick out what they plan on working on next.
2019 lets hope we land something half as good as WFE and I'll be over the moon.

Originally posted by 48&34: ↑

Hi 952
I read your posting and one thing that just screamed out to me was under your heading US + Dow regarding the transport index pushing new highs. I had read recently that the DJT, the Dow Jones Transport index was already in a Bear market, so decided to look at the actual numbers. The 52 week high is 11,624, and the current level is 9109. That is a 21.6% decline within 2018. Dow theory proponents would propose that if the DJT diverges from the DJIA, then there is a loss of equilibrium, and the most common outcome is that the DJIA will move towards the DJT to restore balance. The DJIA is currently sitting at 23,062,compared to a 2018 high of 26,951, a decline of only 14.4%. The alternative but less common outcome, is for the DJT to improve relative to the DJIA. Would you like to comment further?

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Hey mate, DJT is a conglomerate of 20largest transport companies in US. I try pay attention to the raw data, the one I posted was both private and public company transport and freight activity going on in US:

Issue with indexes is companies can be having in house issues causing the entire index to weigh down. Also depends on individual weightings. I remember during LIT ETF reaching highs, it was essentially due to ALB gapping up while rest of lithium players were moving down. Although looked great on Index the majority of companies were being smacked.
URA ETF another index that has gone lower and lower even though Uranium price has done well, I haven't investigated exactly why this has happened could be an in-house issue of one company dragging the entire thing. Summary, indexes are great tools, but raw data also important.

Imo I think DJT will move towards DJIA. A smaller index/asset will always exaggerate the move of a macro index like DJIA. An extreme case scenario for example is XEC rallying from mid 2017 to early 2018. That 30% rally caused most smaller specs to do multibags. Then the decline of 20% in XEC has caused most specs to be smacked down 50%+ now.

Cheers