A bit of discussion around Lithium thought I'd throw this up here regarding my view on EVs and their adoption
in relation to this video by Tony Seba
I think the biggest takeaways from Tony's video is the fact that time and time again throughout history people underestimate the speed and scale of disruption technology will have on a space
His example of horse vs car
Kodak vs Digital cameras
Examples I use like Blockbuster vs Netflix
So if history is anything got go by the speed and scale of this EV disruption is being grossly underestimated by the majority
The battery consumption figures for EVs are based on conservative forecasts of EV uptake
If we are approaching the exponential growth point of the s curve then how short will these estimates be
An example Tesla pre sold more cars in 24hrs with Model 3 than Analysts were expecting them to do in 12mths
OPEC expected EV sales of 1m pa by 2040, Tesla has hit 400k in pre orders for Model 3
Also whilst I agree that to see bigger uptake of EVs and PowerWalls we will need to see more technological advances that improve efficacy and reduce cost giving Moores and other laws off efficacy we aren't far off reaching those required levels
Also regardless of this Tesla has already maxed out its 2016 orders for its PowerWall
Personally I think what Tesla has just done is truly the Apple iPhone moment and there's just no going back, so the 2 questions for me are
First how long before an android and a Samsung emerge to further entice the adoption of the new tech
Second how long will it take everyone to realise that as per usual we have grossly underestimated how fast this shift is taking place and need to drastically revise upwards our demand expectations of "the new smart phone" (EV) as we witnes the death of "Nokia" (Gasoline Cars)
Maybe this time it's different and for once we've accurately estimated for a technology shift but if history is anything to go by we have done the opposite and are in for a rude shock
