Personally I was wondering what the car makers were up to not until quite recently when one after the other they have nearly all, ( when we talk majors I think basically every single one now ), come out and announced $10 billion here and $20 billion there and of course then the big hitters like BMW coming out with $70 or so billion, ( all U.S$ figures ), that they’ll throw at battery factories.
That tells me they have been patiently waiting for the last 24-60 months wondering which way to go and have finally understood that if they don’t get in to production soon, with whatever battery is best and approved now, ( batteries with cobalt in them ), they will miss out on a lot of repeat business.
Keep in mind that carmakers make more money off repairing cars over their life than they do making and selling cars- they want to get current tech EV cars in to driveways with their logo on them ASAP to secure their next 20 years of customer loyalty and of course vehicle/component turn over.
New batteries will come- I’d be thinking early 2020’s at best, more likely mid 2020’s and very possibly late 2020’s or even later if car makers
A. Secure supply.
B. Invest large amounts in current tech.
C. Remember that generally speaking, different situations/demands require different batteries and thus will keep/improve cobalt batteries over that time.
Very importantly, even though I’m perhaps one of only a couple people that talk about this but never forget- just over half of all cobalt goes to the world’s third oldest industry- making weapons etc. World militaries are not shrinking.
Because of that there is a strategic resource component consideration required in all this.
What happens when two or more cashed up national militaries decides they either want the cobalt itself or at the least, want to deny that resource to a rival nation?
Zero’s start getting added to prices over night, that’s what would happen in that scenario.
New day! New year! No big resolutions for me but going to mow the lawn etc and have a nice cold drink- start the year off with some physical activity... ( followed by a dip/shower, some more cold drink and a nap* ).
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