TY23 is only a 6 months year but extrapolated for a full year,...

TY23 is only a 6 months year but extrapolated for a full year, profitability remains in line with expectations.




H2CY23 resulted in production averaging over 29kbpd. Oil price achieved exceeded the previous spreadsheet expectation:




29kbpd x 184 days x $82 works out about the same revenue extrapolated for the 2024 full year.

The COS looks a bit low. SOI is now ~800m so EPS comes in at ~35c. FX has been ~65c, so A$ EPS has worked out at ~54c for H2CY23 (extrapolated for a full year).

Therefore, the P/E multiple will be around 3.4. Seems very low by industry averages.

Although FCFps warrants greater focus with Oiler valuations.


The first 2 months of CY/FY24 have seen Brazil average 25kbpd production. GOM adds another 11kbpd, although FCF there will be reinvested in further development.


The market makers play with the KAR SP like its their little toy. A dividend announcement might well put an end to that. The 31Dec23 Cash at Bank seemed like a good announcement to me. A payment of A$40m for a 5c dividend seems like petty cash compared to KAR's cashflow numbers.

What was once an Exploration play with a load of cash, became rerated as a Production play, will (hopefully) become rerated as a Dividend paying Production play.



"The development program being undertaken by the operator, LLOG, is nearing completion, with two wells, G2 ST2 and G4, expected to be brought onstream during February. These two wells are expected to have the potential to add an initial 9,000 to 12,000 boepd (gross) to Who Dat production, prior to natural decline" - Dr J

https://hotcopper.com.au/documentembed?id=uOMxKKzFkiWRTLKhOROKAxjvSTYM4Au%2BwRmZq%2FZrke92GA%3D%3D

It is hoped that this thursday Dr J will announce a 1mbpa GOM production upgrade, cancelling out the previous Brazil downgrade.


Advanced resolution of the Bauna Well problem would be appreciated too.


Further, the Neon "Concept Select" has been forecast to be announced in Mar24. Given that March begins on the following day, might we also get a decision announced here as well? They've outlined an array of possible approaches to Neon development, I presume by "Concept Select" they mean exactly that ... that they will determine and announce their future plan there.


Re Oil price and Energy stocks underperformance:

"Yet despite this continued decline in supply and inventories, oil prices remain rangebound and seem unable to breakout solidly about the low 80s. Why is that? In a word: financialization, aka "paper oil", because while the physical oil market is screaming higher, financial players (managed money) continue to aggressively sell and short the sector as shown in the chart below"

"This desperate attempt by financial players to keep their underwater positions from getting stopped out and sparking a cascade of margin calls has also translated into a ravenous shorting of energy stocks which as we pointed out a week ago, are the most shorted sector in Goldman's prime brokerage"

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/oil-spreads-soar-physical-market-screams-tightness-while-hedge-fund-press-shorts

The shorting of the Energy Sector reminds me of the picture of the CEO of our Financier/Broker/Underwriter with the Brides of (WEF/BlackRock's) Larry FrankenFinkstein at the recent COP28:



Nothin' suss?