Sydney v Western Bulldogs grand final preview
THE HISTORY
Saturday's grand final will be Sydney's third in the past five seasons and their fifth in the past 12 seasons, surpassing Geelong's four grand finals over the same period, and equal with Hawthorn.
The Swans' consistency over the past 20 years has been phenomenal. Since reaching the 1996 grand final, their first appearance in a premiership play-off since 1945, the Swans have reached finals 18 times in 21 seasons. The next most frequent September participants over the same period have been Geelong and West Coast on 14.
The Western Bulldogs haven't reached a grand final since their loss in 1961 to Hawthorn. They've played in only two in their history, their first in 1954 against Melbourne delivering the club's one and only premiership.
The two teams have met only once this season, the Bulldogs winning a thrilling four-point victory over Sydney at the SCG in round 15 thanks to a last-minute goal from Jason Johanissen.
They also beat the Swans at the SCG by the same margin last season, a win which reversed a run of six consecutive defeats at the hands of Sydney.
THE TEAMS
Sydney: Sydney have had some great teams for a long time now, but the 2016 team would undoubtedly go down in the Swans' history as one of the most remarkable should they triumph on grand final day.
In just two years since their last grand final appearance, Sydney have had a substantial makeover. Just 12 players who took the field in Friday night's preliminary final win over Geelong were part of the 2014 grand final loss against Hawthorn.
Should they come up for selection on Thursday, Aliir Aliir, Isaac Heeney, George Hewett, Zak Jones, Jeremy Laidler, Harry Marsh, Tom Mitchell, Sam Naismith, Tom Papley and Xavier Richards will all be making their grand final debuts.
The team which beat the Cats contained eight players with 30 or fewer games AFL experience, and the line-up which lost to GWS in the qualifying final had less average games experience than their fledgling opponent.
But the youngsters have melded seamlessly with their more seasoned teammates all season, the result the AFL's most consistent side with 18 wins from 24 games including finals, and of the defeats, only the two losses to the Giants by any more than 10 points.
The Swans boast the competition's best defence, not only No.1 for fewest points conceded in 2016, but with the best defensive record since St Kilda in 2009.
Their forward set-up has depended largely upon Lance Franklin for goals, and his tally of 80 is miles ahead of next on the list Papley, with just 29, but the Swans still manage enough of a goalkicking spread to have finished fourth in the AFL for points scored this season.
The bedrock, though, remains a classy midfield which bats deep.
Sydney rank second in the differentials for contested possession, behind only the Western Bulldogs, and are efficient with the ball, second for scores from clearances and the best in the AFL relative to opponents at scoring from their forward entries.
Western Bulldogs: Many sceptics believed pre-season that despite the tremendous advances made under Luke Beveridge in 2015, the Bulldogs might come back to the field a little in 2016 as opponents did their homework better and the element of surprise was lost.
Instead, the Dogs have delivered an even more impressive year of football, not only maintaining and raising their standards, but doing so despite a shocking catalogue of injuries, which saw skipper Bob Murphy sidelined from as early as round three, at one stage almost their entire defence out injured, then losing the likes of Marcus Adams, Jack Redpath and Mitch Wallis all for the rest of the season.
They were unlucky indeed to win 15 games yet finish only seventh, unprecedented in league history, but made short work of their nominal bottom-four status with super-impressive victories over West Coast, Hawthorn and then GWS to reach the premiership playoff.
While not a high-scoring team, ranked only 12th in the AFL for points scored, the Bulldogs' defence has ranked third for lowest points against, and has done so despite a notable lack of key position-sized defenders.
The Bulldogs ranked No.1 in the AFL this season on the differentials for both contested and uncontested possession, and second for inside 50 entries relative to their opposition.
The Dogs have had 13 players this season average 20 disposals or more per game, and most of their midfield group have also spent plenty of time forward, helping keep the scoreboard tick over despite the loss of Redpath, Tom Boyd being used often in the ruck, and some up-and-down performances from Jake Stringer.
THE COACHES
John Longmire's no-fuss manner makes him still one of the lower-profile AFL coaches despite enormous success in his six years in charge of Sydney since taking over from Paul Roos, a period in which he has led the Swans to three grand finals.
Longmire's record stands at 102 wins from 148 games for a strike rate of 69.6 per cent, second only to Chris Scott of the current AFL coaches, and those two with the best all-time strike rates of coaches with more than 100 games.
Hard-nosed as a man manager but not lacking empathy, nor a preparedness to back his charges, Longmire has overseen a significant changing of the guard at Sydney yet never sacrificed the team's competitiveness, the Swans never missing the finals under his watch.
A second premiership from three grand finals in six seasons at the helm would be suitable reward, Longmire becoming only the 26th coach in league history to oversee multiple flag wins.
Beveridge provides one of the most remarkable coaching stories in recent football history, coming from seemingly nowhere to stand one win away from joining the list of AFL premiership coaches.
Success has followed him everywhere. He led St Bede's Mentone from C grade to A grade in the VAFA with three successive premiership wins, then worked as player development manager at Collingwood, present for the Magpies' 2010 flag win. Three years at Hawthorn saw him involved in two more premierships.
He was nonetheless still considered a left-field choice by the Bulldogs at the end of 2014 after the sacking of Brendan McCartney after already having been appointed director of coaching by St Kilda.
Coming off a finish of 14th with only seven wins in 2014, Beveridge inspired immediate improvement from largely the same playing list, the Bulldogs winning 14 games and beaten narrowly in the elimination final by Adelaide. This season, he has taken his charges to greater heights still.
THE VENUE
Sydney, until they upset Hawthorn in the 2012 grand final, had an appalling record at the MCG, having won just one of 15 previous games there prior to that memorable premiership win.
But from the 2012 grand final onwards, the Swans have won nine of 14 appearances at football's headquarters, including four of the last five, the sole defeat coming only after the siren against Richmond in round eight this season.
Urban myth says the Western Bulldogs are a several-goals-better team at Etihad Stadium, but recent results don't back it up. Indeed, the Dogs have won five of their past seven games at the MCG.
PREDICTION
The Western Bulldogs will be an overwhelming sentimental favourite having won just the one premiership. They have more sound reasons for hope than that also, having beaten Sydney, albeit narrowly, their last two starts. But the Swans have been slightly better-performed this season, are more dependable in all circumstances and have pound-for-pound, the more talented team.
That should translate into a third AFL premiership over the last 12 seasons on the day that matters most.
*Sydney by 24 points
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