SYA Daily Report, page-354

Another attempt of breakout?

Yes SYA gained 7 pips to finish at 8.7c. Our volume was moderate - just over 87m shares traded. Today's trading was very positive, touched the bottom of yesterday's close of 8, and finished on the day's high of 8.7. Very bullish and is on another attempt of a break out. The only thing that could have been better - more volume, and breaking this level of 8.7 which I was watching. After reaching low of 6.9, in last 1 week it has made 3 attempts to get out from here but has got stalled at 8.7/8.8. So this is now the key number to watch. Yesterday I had mentioned that I had got out at 8.2 from my buys at 7.5 thinking 8 may not hold - I was wrong - 8 has held strongly for now. But I have not yet bought, don't want to play 5/10% game, so will be watching for a break above 8.8 and my buy could possibly be around 9. Also another Li stocks I started buying last week and have been writing there, went berserk and has nearly doubled in last 1 week, so took up a lot of my attention - been very lucky there.
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ASX Li stocks were in happy mood today. Of the 96 stocks that I track, average gain was around 3%
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Overnight US Li stocks were mixed but more green than red, including ALB in green. Average gain was around 2%. I feel ALB trading could provide an important indicator around Li sector sentiment, hence keeping a close eye there.
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What next:
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Yesterday SP 500 had another green day but did not cross any key levels, finishing at 4378, up around 0.3%. ASX matching it slightly with gain of 0.2%.
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So now SP 500 has done 7 consecutive greens. In last 40 years there is only one other instance where this 7 consecutive greens has happened, in 2003 signalling end of bear market. So its rare phenomena and has caught many unawares - though rise last 2 days has been small. Again key levels up - 4400 but more importantly 4450, down 4300 but more important 4200/4250 zone.
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Lead Indicators were are good. VIX below 15 and dropped further, Yields dropped, Dollar Index no clear move. Bitcoin has again gone above 35k, not decisively though, but indicating its getting ready for next move towards 40k
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So what will happen tonight? No major economic data. Fed talks, Powell to speak soon, some earnings - all these may provide small direction. But main play sentiment and technicals. Every day punters are expecting there will be pullback, and market makers are frustrating and also winning the shorting case. Probability of red after 7 greens has increased significantly, like on a toss we have consecutive 7 heads - increasing the chance of a tail. But each toss is an independent event with equal chance of head/tail. So who knows, we can continue on our merry way with another green . Will that happen?, Lets hope so. All the best.