SYA Daily Report, page-4

Does it look like the uptrend is over?

Yes SYA lost 1c to finish on 22.5c. Our volume today was decent and average, just over 114m shares traded. So it has been pushed down now and got back to where it was over a week back. Weakening Li sector has pushed a number of Li stocks, including big stocks from their recent times. So it looks like institutions are in play following markets and Li sentiment and adjusting their portfolio.

ASX Li stocks were mixed, most had decline, but few had good gains. Of 54 stocks that I track, ait was flat and there was no gain or loss.

Overnight US Li stocks were very weak and lost over 3% on average. Third consecutive day losing over 3% every day - one of the weak points has been reached in Li sector - hope its temporary.

What next -

The US indices had a red day, so now has been alternating red and green. SP 500 lost close to 1%. ASX was mostly up the whole day, though not much. Finally closed around 0.25% up. But like yesterday, again resource stocks were weak.
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So SP 500 now has failed to break above 4000. It tried for 3 days going up, but could not close. Yesterday it could not reach 4000. Last 4 days the close has been around 3950 level. The failure to close above 4000 and yesterday not reaching there is not a good sign, but it could be consolidating.

Yesterday Dollar Index, Yields and Volatility Index VIX were mostly favorable for stocks. But still most resource stocks are weakening. Why is that? We are now getting slight divergence between High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) and SP 500. The HYG is not buying the rise. Secondly, while retail (dumb money) is buying, the institutions (smart money) are selling - as per US stats.
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Another factor that is not looking good is Options Expiry in US markets on Friday. Trillions of dollars are involved. Lot of Calls are on 4000 and above. The Market Makers (people who run Wall Street and have to pay out for all Options) may have to pay out huge amount is market finished above 4000 on Friday. There is speculation that Market Makers play out the market such that they have to pay out the least amount and most Options can be expired worthless. For that to happen, markets should finish in some 38 hundreds. Its possible markets could be pushed to those levels.
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Personally, after failure of finishing above 4000 on SP 500, I have been going a bit defensive from yesterday and taking some of the table so that if markets drop I have some money. Still holding decent amount. Many analysts are now calling for a pullback - it would be good if we can reverse from 3900 on SP 500 (just over 1% down from here). Another level being talked about is around 3800/3820 level - I am not sure how it will reach there after getting so many positive data in last 1 week, but markets are very volatile and unpredictable in 2022 - so anything can happen.
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So what will happen tonight? Its very unpredictable. There is no major driver. Some housing data and earnings report. Technicals and sentiment may drive the market. On daily charts, things are still quite bullish and another attempt to cross 4000 on SP 500 can be made tonight. Will that happen? Let's hope so. All the best.