TA, page-460

Lets compare the current markets reaction to the 2 other contract award announcements.

Contract 1) date 22/1/15 price hits 80c and fails, following day it has a range of 4.5c with a high of 76c and a low of 71.5c. The vol on this day was 2.8m

Contract 2) date 23/2/15 price hits 80c once again and fails, the following day sees the sp sell off aggressively with a daily range of 10.5c high 75.5c and low of 65c. The vol on this day was 3.7m.

Contract 3) date 23/3/15 price hits 83.5c this time and fails, the daily range today is 3c from its high of 76c to its low of 73c and the vol is only 1.75m.

So not only is the day 2 reaction of the current announcement much more muted than on the previous 2 contract announcements it also so happens to be one of the narrowest ranging days of the entire month, incidentally 2.5c range is the narrowest range of March, its quite clear from this that the sellers dont have the same level of conviction....

To me it looks like the sp behaviour is beginning to change from extreme pessimism to only very slight pessimism after a contract win is announced..

remember the market has a memory if last time something went one way then many think that it will play out this way every time, I will be waiting to see this behaviour changing and there are definitely signs if it.

Perhaps the next contract award the sp might see a slight optimism as the market begins to see that Alexium is indeed delivering and if they deliver at this rate then those numbers fosters spoke about might be reality one day and not just a dream...

People with patience and discipline will be rewarded the most here.