Hi markymark2345Great analysis as always. Very comprehensive and...

Hi markymark2345

Great analysis as always. Very comprehensive and reasonable logic on all fronts.

A few minor potential swing factors:
- The 12 April guidance update was for 12.3-12.9mtpa equity coal sales (excluding purchased coal). 13m tonnes for the year may have prompted a guidance update by now, though it's close to the range.
- I'm curious to see what effect the coal reservation scheme will have. While the price is supposedly capped we also know:
- it adjusts for actual CV
- I understood that it must be delivered at own cost (ie WHC wears any freight cost, which presumably isn't part of their usual network)
- Perhaps WHC purchased lower CV coal to deliver, meaning their full production remained available to export
... all to be answered soon
- only shares bought back in this financial year should reduce the 50% payout ratio. I.e. the remaining part of this BB from July - Oct will count toward the payout ratio calc next year. The last BB (10%) all counted toward the previous FY even though some was purchased this year. But I think that was one off, especially as we all expect the BB program to be extended beyond October. So there may be more room under the payout ratio than your estimate.

Thanks again for your great analysis and generously sharing it.