1. On 15.4.24, a Ukranian drone attacked Russia's third largest...

1. On 15.4.24, a Ukranian drone attacked Russia's third largest oil refinery in Tatarstan, c. 1300 kms from the front lines. Russia claims the damage was able to be quickly rectified.

https://ca.news.yahoo.com/several-people-injured-drone-attack-052252479.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAABRPLT9GWFge6zJ5TcbqAxLsBI5MXOje

Western oil experts have stated these, & other shorter, drone attacks have reduced Russian oil refinery output by c.14% recently

This drone attack was the 4th deep strike into Russia in the last few weeks. I find it surprising they are able to penetrate c. 1200kms over Russian territory, without being shot down, or "jammed" by electronic warfare.
The US has an embargo on Ukraine using US-supplied weapons for these attacks.



2. Ukraine stated recently it will, in 2024, be greatly increasing its drone attacks deep inside Russia- & it will make "thousands of long range drones" in 2024; & announced 18.4.24 it has made suicide bomber drone-planes (still in testing phase) with a range of 3000 kms, that can carry an explosive of c.300 kgs.
Ongoing, increased attacks, if successful, will probably cause international oil & gas prices to rise- &, probably IMO, thermal coal prices as well.

The Economist (UK)18.4.24 wrote

"The best of the new models has a range of 3,000km, able to reach Siberia. Born out of necessity—the West has been reluctant to provide Ukraine with long-range weapons—the programme has disrupted much of Russia’s oil and military infrastructure. But the White House is not happy. It is pushing the Ukrainians to stop the strikes.

America’s concerns have varied, from a rise in the oil price to the prospect of an uncontrollable tit-for-tat in which Ukraine could end up the loser...

So far, Ukraine is ignoring American advice to call off the strikes. “Detective”, an intelligence officer responsible for part of the programme, says he has not received instructions to dial down operations. Yes, there has been a switch away from aiming at oil infrastructure in the past week, but it is probably temporary. “Our targets change day to day. We keep the Russians on their toes.”

One long-range-drone producer claims that not every American representative agrees with its policy. His contacts “winked” while they delivered warnings. “They’re privately telling us to keep going.” The producer predicted an expansion of Ukraine’s drone programme in the months to come. “Russia is scorching Ukrainian earth. It’s time we did the same to European Russia"

Ukraine is ignoring US warnings to end drone operations inside Russia (economist.com)