Australia’s boom in coal, gas exports ‘headed for $120b...

Australia’s boom in coal, gas exports ‘headed for $120b collapse
’By Nick Toscano and Mike Foley April 3, 2023 — 12.01am

The value of Australia’s coal and gas exports could be halved in just five years as new forecasts warn booming commodity prices have likely passed their peaks and key trading partners across Asia are increasing efforts to curb greenhouse gas emissions.

Federal government trade data, to be released on Monday, reveals earnings from Australia’s minerals and energy exports are set to reach unseen highs of $464 billion in 2022-23 after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine worsened a global energy crisis and boosted fossil fuel prices for a second straight year

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However, the figures from the Department of Industry, Science and Resources warn that the spectacular surge in energy commodity prices from 2022 has now “largely unwound” as the world economy slows and supply chain disruptions due to COVID-19 and weather show signs of easing.

“Australian resource and energy export earnings are thus set to fall noticeably,” the department says.

The benchmark price of high-quality thermal coal traded at the Port of Newcastle is expected to fall by up to 75 per cent by 2028 – from $US371 a tonne to $US90 a tonne. Global demand for thermal coal has passed its peak, the report says, while most proposed coal-fired power stations are being cancelled across the world.

The outlook for coal in Australia’s three biggest coal markets is also worsening as countries accelerate plans to combat climate change by reducing their use of the planet-heating fossil fuel and switching to cleaner sources of energy.

Taiwan’s coal imports fell 8 per cent in 2022 and plans to enlarge its coal-fired power fleet have been shelved. In South Korea, coal demand was steady last year, but is likely to come under pressure from the country’s accelerating use of gas, renewables and nuclear energy in coming years. Japan is planning for renewable energy to account for as much as 26 per cent of its power mix by 2030.

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The value of Australia’s overall coal exports is predicted to fall by $79 billion, from $128 billion to $49 billion, by 2028.
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She added that Australia’s exports of vital raw materials in clean-energy technologies, such as lithium, were growing strongly and on track to equal the value of coal shipments by 2027-28.
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