@daveironore my last post before xmas unless we see something exciting unfold your chart is a good one but what are the conclusions? stage 1 covid spike down in 2020 to level 16 hammer recovered by early 2021 conclusion? well could not pick much in advance or during the spike down so just waiting time
stage 2 early 21. will it get through to next level or fall back. well yes it does. then the backtest and then the backtest holds. conclusion we are away for the next leg and what a leg it has been from 16 to 42. can we pick the top along the way? no we cant. let the market decide it. what do we lose by holding. well not much but the trade. the big trade was from early 21 to april 22 or thereabouts. you dont a precise chart to tell you along the way. there was a small hammer in xmas 22 and it fell to the horizontal and held and then away again you can split into elliott waves and gann charts and add fib levels but the basics of it are not complicated
stage 3 april 22 to now. churn down. what conclusion can we look for here? well first the fib level of the entire run from covid 20 to april 22 is approx 16 to 42. take 50% level and we get 50% of 26 equals 13 which ends with where we are here at 29. yes 29. 29 was a significant level at xmas 22 so we have a horizontal. so conclusion is it is a perfectly natural fade and profit taking of a major multiyear wave which is still playing out. here and now there are no obvious steps. i hope it falls through and we see gold run but i cant tell. we are at the right spot and let the market decide if it holds here or not so waiting time
then we can add in other charts and they all seem to blur into the same patterns. woodside run was similar. $16 to $40 to $30 and then a recovery and now churn lower
instead of trying to predict each leg just wait for the market to decide. if there is a set up then go for it otherwise fade is 90% of the time
you can drill down to individual points on that chart. the steepest rise was xmas 22 when it had the hammer. you dont buy the hammer down. you wait for it to get through $31. that is when the market got on board for a final burst up. quick and steep. i traded woodside for that laast leg
compare it to present tagging and fall back sub $33.5. it has tried and failed to get back up so it does not auger well just here
you can also try and pick the tops and bottoms. woodside 100% plus from $20 to $40 was an obvious resting point. then $30 for a bounce and so on
that is a system. does it always work. no. is it 60% or better? well this is where you need to develop and test a system yourself
we have not even added in volume and time. look at the xmas 22 volume that came in for that last spurt up. magnificient. the time is my real bugbear. are we in the next stage of a super cycle from 2000 or not. do we see a 6 month break in the $US and then it resumes its rise. interesting to see what US did post gfc and what it is doing again here with opec. US oil exports to europe have a massive increase. opec is cutting back. do we see a soft landing for US again. i back the US here especially in a presidential year. Fed to back off and market to recover but i am not trading that. waiting time again and let the market decide Look at it as a moving feast and we want to catch the movements. up and down are both good these conclusions are possibles only at the time. hindsight is a wonderful thing but so too is reviewing a very famous sportsperson said years ago he reviewed his performance in every game and learnt from it all the way to number one and a legend so too with our trading. we need every bit of effort to keep up with the sharks who run it all
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