cycles? fascinating study and debate my focus is more on the charts - volume time fib levels and price levels all combined into what I call the count and then simplify it into hammers we currently have a nice hammer on the spx bouncing up from a 50% retracement level of 3500 on the longer term chart and resulting in a double speed speed angle up. post gfc my expectation and it was predictable was when 1050 held then we saw 2100. which we did. our bear pipped me to the point. 2180 from memory or so. then post covid we had 2194 to 4800 and the backtest of 3500 approx 3500 held. all very very accurate at the 50% level or thereabouts. all predictable. it was a real struggle at 3400 and when we got through it was no surprise that 3500 held at the time. most predicted doomsday. i posted wait and see at the time. it has worked the next step is to see if 4800 gets through or it becomes a backtest to 4600 and then up and through or it fails and 4800 and then 4600 become resistance all 3 are viable options I believe in cycles and ta. it is a strong tool. once it gets through each angle it then flows up or down to a new support or resistance point the cycle shows up on the monthly charts i call it the count as i count off each point up or down meaningless unless you are into it
then you add volume
when the spx retraced all that lovely buying volume came in at 4100 and we got our speed angle up anda 2times 1 speed angle up and it finished at 4800. i said once before that blocks of 600 are a fair guide to the spx
i have a similar approach to the gold since 2010
here i call it the hammer which is pretty straightforward
spx needs to break 4800 here to get to the main meat of the hammer up but i find it simpler to buy on the hammer down when volume comes in and track the levels. here we are at a major level. that is all it is. a dot albeit a significant one on a cycle of time
the problem i struggle with is time which i suspect is the real answer but beyond me
anyway that is it. it is up to you if you find cycles fascinating enough to take further. you may find the answer on time which has eluded me i also find i have a lot more confidence in what i call my count using levels, angles and volume. volume is the key
anyway that is it for me and posting for awhile. i suspect we each post solely for ourselves in the end. like a diary to keep ourselves honest over time? who knows
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