S&P/ASX Small Ordinaries (ASX:XSO) - The Brains Trust - 2024, 71869860, page-95 - HotCopper | ASX Share Prices, Stock Market & Share Trading Forum

Originally posted by cha: ↑

spx been textbook last few months
3900 to 4300 then slight backtest to 4100 - 50% of the move which held easily
4100 to 4600 with volume
4600 was the then top and worked its way back to tagging 4100 almost before buyers and volume back for current run to 4800
where it sits awaiting the Fed and rates
all seems pretty silly with our market ebbing and flowing accordingly

volume has fallen off at the highs so smarties not buying the highs so waiting time either hold or sell
if it gets through then have to buy the backtest
but spx left a gap in its rush from 4600 to 4800. odds are for a backtest at least to 4600 but will see. 4600 is the current line

weekly paints a better picture

but the monthly spx is a ripper. the run up from 3500 has been fantastic and it shows 4800 as a possibly significant double top. which would normally say extra caution and wait and see if it gets through
but the buying volume on this entire run is massive
so hoping and expecting a break up and through and the smart money is to hold off just here.

but these thoughts are for myself for my own weekend review and i have to say it is an interesting picture for jan to march
i used to complain post gfc about how slow the market was recovering
now at the highs I find myself wishing for a decent cleansing hammer so it is a little simpler

if the spx falls then at least gold will win this leg of the endless race between spx and gold
the gold buyers are not budging here. nor are the spx buyers. bitcoin is glowing
it is a fascinating time in the markets
lithium ran last year. uranium copper iron ore all did alright spx at highs
silver and gold to shine? but everything has run

there is no point in my wishing or guessing for the next step. the recent buying volume is in the spx
i was right two years ago with the unusual buying volume in the US$. it took me awhile to work out and twig what was happening with the rate rises. the volume showed it. it also makes sense to work out the recent volume in the spx and how it follows with rate rises to end then money flows into the spx for divvie returns
gold has the break up (very slight) on the monthly. it just needs the volume to come in here and up we go
but oil has the line on the sand at $80 which it has to get through
safest to wait and see where the volume leads yet again?
this is a high risk little period with everything at highs and can easily see a lot of stops triggered with falls of 10% or more
perhaps wait and see if oil does get through $80 and take gold with it
and wait for fed to say enough is enough with their crap rises

the comfort i have is if the fed overdo the rises (which normally happens) they are still in control and can drop them back to zero or bring in qe again
so it should just be a year of consolidation

but the money flow is out of control in places like south america. 180%? plus inflation.
if that spreads and the fed has no more bullets then gold and silver should do well aka 1980
who knows. churn is normal

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Can see that 80's period the demand for ' stuff ' remained pretty constant despite the wide swings in the cost of money.

This time we have declining demand for ' stuff ' preceding an increase in the cost of money.

That frustrating 15/16 period the cost of money was kept low not this time.

I am prone to look for exciting narratives but I can see that over time markets do go mostly up and buying the dip usually works.

I am fascinated with the global demographics here and broader historic cycles.

Also energy and the cost of money here which way who knows but it is all very interesting anyway.