the odds of the S&P making the ATH at this level are miniscule....

the odds of the S&P making the ATH at this level are miniscule.
the latest COT suggests the market will have a cycle down but so what.

it's all about probability and one is acting in their own best interests if they take a Baysian approach.
it is most probable that the following events will occur before we see the ATH.

1. the market leaders will turn down before the index.
now look at the leaders... GOOG NFLX AAPL FB AMZN they all made ATHs in january.

2. FDX will turn down before the index.
FDX made a ATH in january
in 2007 FDX topped out at the start of the year while the market topped in october.

3. a semi-log plot of MSCI shows it to be in a linear trend channel starting 2013. history suggests the price will break down out of this channel before the S&P makes its final high.