hi PB. i set my target where i think there is a fifty percent...

hi PB. i set my target where i think there is a fifty percent chance of the market reaching in the time span i am using. of course i take my money anywhere near my target. it's all about the money only belongs to whoever takes it off the table. futures is a less than zero sum game because of the vig. if you don't take money when you are right, and you lose money when you are wrong, the odds are against you winning.

i don't move my stop. if i'm not ahead after say 20 minutes, i scratch the bet. my timing is not right. in fact it is not often that i get stopped out, usually near the open and the market thinks i need a spanking. i don't bet that often because it is hard to find an asymmetric bet.

at times i feel i am playing poker against the market. i think there is always a "tell" at inflection points.
there is an anomaly which is the "tell" which you have to keep your eyes skinned for.

and sometimes i see them. like our recent market low. this is the type of thing that gives me an edge and i usually keep them to myself. but i will mention two others.

do you remember the top day in 1987 when Elders, one of the market darlings, came out with a good report and the price didn't go up?

or do you remember a market top where on the day of the top, STW had a volume of more than one million?