SG, are you aware what virtually means? Another words its not saying there isn't any growth
its saying there is little growth across the Western economies.
Yeah I understand, I think your comment was alarmist and inaccurate
You are correct re US 2nd qtr GDP at 4%, Q1 however was negative by over 2%.
That shows a massive rebound on your figures of 6PC, after the the wobble in JAN thanks to the historic storm, that's shows resilience
If an economy has been at a certain level say 100 in 2007 & fell to say 60 in 2009 & now is at 80, is that growth?
As I tried to show you from the UK data released Monday, the UK economy is now larger than pre GFC levels and its reached it in early 2013 not 2014 , that's good right, there is a definite recovery
I have never said anything is going to collapse, but its a possibility.
Sure anything is possible, but from your statements, using words like unsustainable debt, failed stimulus programs, virtually no growth, its a pretty gloomy picture and it certainly portrays a system that could collapse
I just recognize both the good & the bad which most market commentators fail to do & you certainly do.
So do I, but this thread is about "THE future Stock Market Crash and Death of money" you think that rehashed article is balanced?...you think Richards is balanced in his view or just supporting his call that he would buy at 1200.....
If you think 50%+ youth unemployment in the likes of Spain is elevated, what is out of control? Or 26% total unemployment for Spain. French unemployment increased in August 2014 from 10.2% to 10.5%!
European unemployment did improve on average slightly, but crikey it needs to or there will be social unrest at a minimum. There is a disaffected youth in Europe, with graduates having been out of work for six years! Many don't know what its like to have a job.
Sure, the problem has been around for a while, ECB and those governments are taking a lot of action to stabilize this and improve it. Bailouts of banks, Banking reg changes, LTRO's, sovereign bonds, budget and defcit action and agreements etc etc all with the idea of getting things going again after some countries were sent to the wall , once on their knees the ECB has come in and said yes we will help but on our terms, your previous management is not on as the other members of the trading block have said no more without prudent austerity etc etc,,
I quite freely acknowledge there is a recovery of sorts going on in the West, there needs to be as things were so bad there was only one option other than complete collapse hence QE by the trillion.
Sure, as a result, banks better capitalized, better regulated, better lending standards, reduction I unemployment, GDP is positive, more work to be done, prices of energy lower and more stable, people have more confidence that the system and their money isn't going to disappear overnight, business is slowly investing again, earnings in USA are at an all time high for S and P
However how does this justify record levels in US equity markets?
EPS at all time high on S and P
Rates are low, inflation is low, energy prices low, consumer feeling better, unemployment dropping as jobs created
I see you didn't bother to answer my question re both bonds & equities being elevated at the same time, as there is no good answer other than its a distortion created by QE & 0% interest rates.
thanks to the likes of Japan and ECB handing out money to their banks at next to zero, some will flow to the other countries like the USA as they have higher 10 year rates, USA will be cheering......now the other banks are doing their job of keeping rates low and contained as they withdraw. That also pushes stock as those sorts of programs spark a carry trade.......as you can see in two weeks Euro down more, USA dollar up and some of that money goes into bonds and equities
I have been shorting the DOW regularly & making a killing. Last night I was short but had a take profit level far to high & only made half what I could have, but a god win is a good win.
Well done, As you can see not everything went down, last week it was high yielding junk bonds,,,,last nights big one was the long running speculators who bought Fannie and Freddie got killed, they took on the government in court looking to get some dividends from the company, Court said no.....good news there is that the taxpayers that bailed it out via the government are reaping huge rewards, speculators and hedge funds,,,,,KILLED
Long gold to at $1206. Happy days. Gold stocks I hold should see some recovery today as well.
You talk about overvalued, USA s and P trading at 16 times average forward 2015 earnings....many of the Gold stocks here are trading at vastly higher multiples.
Gold yes a little rebound back to the lower end 1212, 1221 failed again,,might go higher sure, nothing moves in a straight line, Gold performed as it should last night, it sold to cover huge losses in some equities I suspect as people cashed in their hedge.
I reckon Russia may sell some, many are realising these sanctions don't just hurt Russia, I see it crimped Germany into negative PMi last night and pulled the entire EU block down to just above expansion,,,eeeked out a gain
The realization that equity markets are overvalued is sinking in & they have been struggling for months now.
not everything is overvalued, certainly somes stocks are stupid, some sectors are stupid, but that's always the case, the market will balance them out
The gold spec market is still very short with the net spec short position reportedly at 6 million ounces, so 1+ million ounces have been covered & probably a bit more last night. Still ammo has been spent & gold is holding if not rising & there are still short positions to be covered
yeah I saw your BOA info, I didn't understand it at all, if you strip out what they think are the long side hedges there is a net short.......
