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1.5¢ samson oil & gas limited

Cmon, I don't know on the multiple, there isn't enough info to...

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Rob79

1,593 Posts.

6

12/04/16

07:29

Post #: 17478051
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Originally posted by cmonaussie ↑

Hi Rob79,

Don't think so (missing hedges - I read the PR as that which was detailed are all of the hedges - anything else would have been traded out of with their hedging counterparty). Only interested in this June Qtr ... nothing else matters.

The Sr Debt/EBITDAX multiple table only pertains to June Qtr - hence my focus on production estimate for oil.

Your 110,677 BOE for June ==> at 81% oil yields 89,697 BO for June. Are your graphs low or high with that estimate?

Just need to be approximately right ... not exactly wrong (hence low/mid/high as sensitivity to price). Same goes on costs which is why I took the Dec Qtr and give SSN the benefit of the doubt (which SSN could erase with a proforma on the acquisition but chooses not to).

TB could remove all doubt with a proforma and show us all how the June Qtr was forecast to pan out (followed by Sep & Dec Qtrs) and how SSN operationally avoids the covenant breach based on the new Credit Facility terms.

The Sr Debt allows only for 4.25x (my bad in previous post where I said 4.5x). This what MOB cares about (total funded debt can go above 4.5x but has to be below 5.75x which occurs when OAS 2L is added).

Yes or No - will SSN be below 4.25x their Sr Debt/EBITDAX for the June Qtr? To the best of my knowledge I have set out the sensitivity in the earlier post.

If yes then all should get better going forward as their oil production is predicted to increase each Qtr.

If no, then default event (do we really think MOB is going to put up with this new facility going south again right out of the gate and back to non performing status). Simple cure is further reduction to BB which would mean either additional 2L debt or equity (above the $10M just raised).

Possibly as important as $50 avg in H2/16 is SSN achieving 100MBO per Qtr. They have to produce to survive. Problem solved.

Just saying this Qtr is going to be close! Real close unless there is something (not one off) that hasn't been advised.

GFTA

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Cmon, I don't know on the multiple, there isn't enough info to say imo. With the old hedges though we either have to include them as I have done or alternatively factor in the realisation gains which if they were closed out was at a low OP. That would add some cash but more importantly also help the EBITDA, as I stuffed my last quarter calcs on the hedges I'm not game to guess on the hedges. Also they could have sold something or be in process or even small farmout. Any of these would effect the calculations and I have no insight on that.

I am not at all disputing that there is a challenge, only possibilities that we don't have enough info.
Cheers

SSN Price at posting: 0.6¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
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