- Millennials(born 1981 to 1995) were 12.7 percentage pointslessinclined to vote for the Coalition in their early elections moving towards the Coalition at a rate of 0.6 percentage points per electoral cycle. Given their low initial support for the Coalition, Millennials remain 8 percentage pointslesslikely to vote for the Coalition in their early 40s.
Although the youngest generation of current voters, Generation Z (born 1996 to 2009) have cast their vote in only three federal elections, their electoral behaviour stands out as dramatically different to the generations that preceded them — even when compared to Millennials.
- Support for the Coalition amongGeneration Zin their earliest elections has been significantly lower than any generation of the post-war era, with an election adjusted primary vote of -14.4 percentage points — lower than that for Millennials (in absolute terms) at a similar age. In contrast to earlier generations, Generation Z has moved further away from the Coalition at just under 5 percentage points per electoral cycle. They are, in their mid-20s, 25.3 percentage points less likely to vote for the Coalition than the average voter.
Having uncovered strong — and intergenerationally diverse — age effects in electoral behaviour, this report uses a simulation methodology to assess the extent to which these age effects are politically significant within the context of generational change.
Despite a modest (projected) increase in the average age of the electorate from 47.3 in 2022 to 48.7 by 2040, this period will see considerable change in its generational composition. Although the ‘pro-Coalition’ generations (mostly Baby Boomers and Generation X) were a majority of voters at the last election (56.2 per cent), by 2040 they will make up less than a third (30.2 per cent).
The younger generations (Millennials and Generation Z) made up 43.8 per cent of voters in 2022. With the addition of the post-Generation Z electorate, voters born after 1980 are set to make up just under 69.8 per cent of voters by 2040.
Given Millennials’ modest inclination towards the Coalition — and Generation Z’s present aversion to it — changing generational demography could have politically important ramifications if these generational voting behaviours continue into the future.
The simulation method developed in this report suggests generational change could see the Coalition’s Average Primary Vote across lower house electorates fall by 9.1 percentage points over the course of the next six electoral cycles. This reduction in primary vote is simulated to result in a 35-seat reduction in Coalition seats in the House of Representatives by 2040.
The end is nigh. Good riddance to bad $hit. If they are to save themselves, they need to detach from the Boomers and fossil fuel benefactors, look to the future and massively restructure their political thinking.
If they go on? They die.
But will they change? No they’ll all coin it till the end. Money has them enthralled. Sad, but true. And the young are the change initiator. Their futures are not with either LNP or ALP. Both the big 2 are now on the downward spiral.
