My new Enigma decoding machine has arrived so I can now contribute to the discussion. Thanks to everyone who has contributed to the debate and apologies if I repeat anything already posted.
SOA #2
Q. What is faster than the speed of light ?
A. A share trader hitting the sell button when the first number he sees relating to flow rates is 10. Those that bothered to read any further would have surrendered when they read the Gretel bombshell.
I would caution anyone from assuming anything about this well, based on the update provided yesterday. For a start the flow rate we got was 10 barrels of fluid PER HOUR, not the more usual BOPD. However, when I put "Swabbing" into the code machine, this is what I got...
SWABBING A WELL
"After a well has been drilled, a work over crew may need to perform functions which require “killing” the well. This is accomplished by placing heavy liquids down the well bore, and stops hydrocarbons from producing. Once the well needs to begin flowing again, it may be necessary to swab the well.
Swabbing is accomplished by placing a rubber plunge down the well bore. The swab is then pulled back up towards the top of the well bore, taking with it the liquids that were previously placed to kill the well. As the swab moves up the well the pressure below it is reduced and liquids are sucked out behind it."
So that certainly leaves plenty of questions unanswered. Why did we use the swabbing technique in the first place rather than a normal restricted flow back. This was not a normal flow back test, but something a little more complicated.
Apart from that, there is one other thing to think about. On it's own in isolation, SOA #2 may not produce to it's maximum potential. But once a few other wells are drilled and fracced in close proximity, it may change things somewhat, but that's just speculation on my part.
Defender
This well simply refuses to die. Apparently, according to the code machine, the Jet pump was not dropped into the well to improve oil production, but rather...
"The jet pump test on the Defender well was successful in that the designed bottom hole pressure was achieved."
OK, that's cool, so now we are dropping in another ( the 3rd or 4th ) rod pump, which managed to pull out 288 barrels on one day when gas and sand didn't stuff things up. I see this as a positive but will assume nothing.
Australia II
Remember this one, talk about the prodigal son returns. This well has been the equivalent of a Chinese fire drill from the beginning. It's had everything go wrong that could go wrong, had everything stuck in the well bore except Terry's dog, been written off and called a dud yet almost unnoticed in yesterdays announcement, some not to shabby flow rates. I see Sharks worked out the numbers so he must have a code machine as well. But how many frac stages are working ? It could be a while before we find out.
Gretel II
The code machine overheated trying to work this one out. If the fault zone does halt northerly migration of oil then we need to confirm this and the only way to do that is drill wells so Gretel has got the job. But why would you mention this before the well is completed.....
- They already know so are warning us in advance.
- They don't know but are warning us in advance in case it's true.
- It's a smokey to ward off potential competitors from buying leases that we want.
The fault zone creates a few different scenarios. If it has stopped the oil migration point blank than 3D will help to identify possible accumulation on the southern side of the fault. Also, there is the possibility that some oil may have leached through to the other side into isolated pockets but that's probably not relevant in the short term. The last sentence is the clue....
"We will continue further evaluation of the well and our acreage position including the potential impact of the Brockton Fault zone."
The code machine suggests this means....we have other options.
Cheers OMR
SSN Price at posting:
6.1¢ Sentiment: LT Buy Disclosure: Held
