Historical patterns of behavior suggest otherwise SG.
Physical holders in my experience very rarely stop themselves out & lower especially much lower prices, like if we see below $1180 would imo attract a large volume of buying. Although physical buying is stepping up as it needs to due to seasonal demand, physical traders I find are generally pretty patient & they will wait before entering the fray. I suspect the technical level of $1180 & below would be well supported.
I wouldn't be surprised to see a low of around $1150, but I think that would be a very quick dip under & then a surge of short covering back over.
Short term yes it could happen, however production will be significantly reduced with prices much below a level of $1180. The only offset would be for currency based producers, however even a significant amount of Australian producers actually mine offshore & have a USD cost structure. But really its the big boys such as Barrick & Newmont that would have the most significant impact if they start curtailing high cost production.
I also suspect the Shanghai exchange will have more impact on the buy side than the market is giving it credit.
