Well to start with, everything is happening on low volume.
Look at today for example, It's IOR's second largest since inception a month ago.
658k = 9.8 million under NSL. Hardly compelling evidence of people running for the exits.
The sell off looks to be the mum's and dad's who bought a million shares in nsl and are now selling off their (now) 70k parcels to look for the next big thing.. and fair enough - there have been substantial delays.
Without spending too much time on it, we have a dedicated tier one Indian engineering team on site to build p3 and fix the issues with p2. We have our first institutional investor doubling down on what was a losing investment for their clients - a decision they wouldn't have taken lightly.
We will come out of the blocks with P2 running how it should have to begun with (yep, I'm just as unhappy as everyone else here), but with capacity doubled with p3.
THey would have learnt heaps with P2 over the last few years and now they're gonna fix and improve it - as per the announcements.
so our under performing p2 200pa @ $30 US margin per tonne (which was improving with each quarter), now becomes 400k TPA @ US$30 (yes, the modelling is older but it's all we've got).
400k x 30 = $US 12 million profit per year (probably net due to tax credits).
So yep, when I say it's cheap at 19 million - I'm not taking about today - I'm talking about in 12 months time.
It's not Cedric and Sean doing everything to get it up to scratch anymore, it's ESSAR a multi billion dollar company that usually probably wouldn't be interested in a minnow like us. But my money is on them wanting to get in on the ground floor for the much bigger stuff that has been outlined in previous announcements.
As per the announcements over the last month, the bigger players are invested long term - ESSAR, First Samuel and the top twenty all are supporting the retrofitting and improvements to P2 to occur at the same time as P3 begins plus we've now had news that everything has been bought forward 3 months.
There's a lot of emotion surrounding this stock, no one likes looking a red screen, but when the tide turns, and the tide WILL turn, people will be kicking themselves they weren't buying under 10 cents.
Just my opinion.
Certainly not losing sleep with this one.
IOR Price at posting:
8.6¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
(20min delay)