First up, my apologies if this all sounds too negative – but, IMO, there is time if one wishes to make adjustments for the current climate.
My definition of risk is – ‘unknown outcomes’ – and, right atm for Breaker – I believe we are now in extraordinary ‘high risk’ territory – Fridays call on the BRBCA’s really cemented the situation for me.
My overall sentiment atm cannot be reflected by ‘sell, hold, buy’ – I would moreso put my sentiment as ‘wait and watch’ –
I consider two basic areas of ‘risk’ ingredients for Breaker right now ----------
- Factors completely outside of Breakers control
- Factors which are either in Breakers control or are ‘Breaker specific’
I consider Breaker to be in very high risk territory now because of a ‘combination’ of these factors – a quirk of happenings and history.
First I guess – it’s ALL about raising capital – there’s just no way out of this – you HAVE to raise – the tricks are always ‘when’ and the biggest one ‘at what price’ – also, ‘how much’ comes into the equation, but, at this stage – probably the latter isn’t as important.
So – to the ‘when’
Well – soon. We probably have not a snowballs chance in hell of getting to Christmas – if we do – we would have to do the most extraordinary cash preservation tricks – including no more office coffee and no more broken coffee mug replacements.
The problems for us about when are –
We have only a few ‘potential positives’ that will drive our price north – or even sustain our current price –
Breaker specific -------- an UG good solid resource would be great. A very positive PFS on time or close would do the trick with luck.
Bad news on both of those would send us South – not north.
Some magical new lode found – the mother of all mothers -------- likelihood?? Realistically? Probably zippo.
Lithium popping up out of the ground at Manna? – hmmm, possibly – but, that commodity is really on the nose industry wise atm – so, my guess – no joy there.
Ok – the really really really big bad news for Breaker on the ‘when’ -------- is the calendar –
OCTOBER ----- the month of disasters – do we have an October meltdown again ?
Who knows – but, we do know some things – we know that Donald Trump is having his trade wars and October jitters will be at very very high levels because of that ------ NOT the best time for investors to be opening their wallets for investments into exploration companies at big prices –
We also know that big bad Boris right atm – has a monstrous October problem – we all know what that is – the UK ‘might’ get a January extension – but, it ‘might’ not – meaning that if it doesn’t – then the world is going to be on the hook worrying about what’s going to happen the morning after. Those two factors alone put up October into very high uncertainty period.
So, all that lot up ------- and throw in that gold – bless it’s little heart – seems to be taking a breather ( perhaps well deserved) – and, has come off 100 bucks in days – here it is now.
Timing wise – will this breather be days? Or might it be for a couple of months? Might it come back below $2000 Aussie? – Ooooops to Breaker if it’s the latter – a dropping POG is not good for raising exploration money.
Now – what price? – remember – we are LOCKED into when – we know it’s got to be soon – ish?
What price – well, therein lies the BIG BIG issue – if we went now – we could probably get enough to stagger by at say ? 25 to 28 cents – not glorious by any means.
If we fluked getting through all those external risks to the PFS and had a great PFS – well, we might get up to ??? guess? – maybe a raise even at 60 ish – boy, that’s hopeful though.
However, if we get a big bad October, and we have no news out of the box (which is unlikely) and our sp dips below 30 in the next week or weeks from the gold sector having a breather and people being suspicious of Breaker – THEN, we get savaged by a massive market crash in the death month – well??????? Raising at 20 might look like it would have been a lovely idea if we could have done it – because if nothing else changes and we get a market crash – then, my guess is that Breaker is going one way – big time.
That would put us timing and price wise – in about the absolute worst possible place – sorry, it has to be said.
I have no idea what’s going to pan out – I have already made my decisions – I am literally out – just a tiny holding of BRB at present – and, I might even sell them. I intend to wait and watch – and, if those risks of large market corrections, bad PFS’s, delays and such don’t come to pass and somehow the price magically rises – then, I will feel happy for my friends who have stayed in – and, I will look for other places to invest unless I consider BRB ‘value’ at the time – OR – if the price does get shattered by whatever – and, I am still happy with the project – then, I may well wait far below where we are now with a net to see what falls into it. I wish us all luck – but, even for me – this time (breaker specific or not factors) is a very very risky time.
