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The Russian Gold Paradox

  1. 7,423 Posts.
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    There is much confusion about whether Russia is buying gold or selling gold, and all I want to know is "which Russians?"
    Screen Shot 2014-12-19 at 9.06.12 am.png
    Here is the apparent paradox:

    A. Russia's 5th largest export (earning $5.5 billion in 2013) is "non-monetary" gold.
    http://www.worldstopexports.com/highest-value-russian-export-products/2348
    B. Therefore Russians must be selling gold.

    A. Everybody agrees that the Russian central bank has been buying gold.
    http://www.cbr.ru/eng/hd_base/?PrtId=mrrf_m
    B. Therefore Russians must be buying gold

    The paradox is easily resolved.

    A. Russian gold producers, produced 220 tonnes of gold in 2013.
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_gold_production#cite_note-2 (Where did Andy find the 248 tonne number quoted in an early post?)
    This is worth $8.3 billion at a price per ounce of $1300.
    B. $5.5 billion of this gold was exported
    C. This leaves gold sales of $2.9 billion purchased domestically, and some presumably was purchased by the Russian central bank.

    Russian gold producers SELL! Russian central bankers BUY!

    For an uncluttered understanding of what Russia is doing in the gold market we need to understand which Russians we are talking about. The producers and the central bank are different entities.

    Cheers
    Last edited by timber1956: 19/12/14
 
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