TLG (ASX) TLG Chart

Originally posted by Lies&damnlies: ↑

Hi Gvan

Much thanks for your posts. I have always found them informative and well constructed.

This is the first time I have seen the information about the Supreme court. If you have posted it before I must have missed it. So we are 10 days away from the highly optimistic scenario and the 4th of March as the most pessimistic scenario. That's assuming that they don't feel like breaking the four month record, Once upon a time that record could have been 3 months. So the Christmas festivities and holidays could play a part especially if the court members pick that time of the year to travel to escape the cold and catch up with family and friends in warmer climates. Just playing devils advocate.

I have deceased my PLS because of the charts. Before that I partially free carried the shares and needed to complete the free carry at under $4 to do so. The chart was ugly so I held off the buy and keep setting lower entries. With further chart research into the Lithium miners and processors, battery manufacturers and EV auto makers I found a series of train wrecks. Then I charted, from the PLS quarterly reports the Spod shipped prices achieved and them included the BMX auction prices achieved.

This information coupled with the various Lithium processed product charts revealed the scale of the enormous Lithium bubble which peaked in the period from Jun 2022 to Jun 2023. So instead of buying to complete my free carry, I sold a significant portion of the stock with the view that my buy will be postponed not by weeks but by quarters. My original $4 dollar target buy has been reset to under $3 to be adjusted with the prices achieved in the next 3 quarterly reports.

This leads me back to TLG. It holds by far so much more potential in the doubling of the SP than PLS. Eventually not just doubling but higher multiples than that. I am already a holder, but looking to significantly increase that holding with some of the funds available from the PLS sale.

Which leads me back to my chart post. My potential target zone was FIB 23-38% suggests a a range of 0.80-0.92. However with no court decision until February, March of even April the FIB zone between 38-50% cannot be ignored. That's assuming no other form of news arrives of significance, but I suspect that, that news will be delayed until the court decides.

You mentioned the 1st Dec graphite export permit news. I believe that accurate information on just who is effected will just trickle out, rather than flood out. I also suspect that there will be confusion across the whole sectors including Lith and graphite miners, chemical processors, battery makers and EV makers.
Political responses to the export permits by affected governments I cannot judge. Tit for tat tariffs on Chinese imports not out of the question.

I don't know what I don't know.

I assume that any producing graphite miner ex-China should benefit, however how will the market deal with the already low graphite pricing and how will the miner benefit. That leads me back to TLG whose supply to the customer is still further down the track. What price will they charge for their product in this evolving climate.

It's like trying to sit on a sun lounge in the middle of a boxing ring during a title fight.

Needless to say I will be paying attention to many charts December onwards.

I woke in the middle of the night, so I am going to try for sleep again.

Just my opinions, DYOR

cheers Lies

PS Doubling or tripling the SP from 0.75 is much easier than 0.92 or even 0.80 or as it is at close today 1.04.

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No.	Vol.	Price($)
10	141405	59.0¢

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141405

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59.5¢	9277	11

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59.5¢

9277

No.	Vol.	Price($)
12	144729	0.590
14	72850	0.585
11	128600	0.580
7	56953	0.575
9	148086	0.570

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144729

0.590

72850

0.585

128600

0.580

56953

0.575

148086

0.570

Price($)	Vol.	No.
0.595	15685	15
0.600	43017	12
0.605	27266	4
0.610	85229	4
0.615	9662	3

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0.595

15685

0.600

43017

0.605

27266

0.610

85229

0.615

9662

(20min delay)
Last 59.0¢		Change -0.005(0.84%)		Mkt cap ! $225.9M

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
61.0¢	61.5¢	59.0¢	$425.4K	711.8K


Last 59.0¢		Change -0.005 ( 2.07 %)
Open	High	Low	Volume
60.5¢	61.0¢	59.0¢	178584
Last updated 15.59pm 06/06/2024 ?

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