Trump on corona: epic fail

Originally posted by Osi: ↑

OK. Trump can occasionally get some parts of the matrix correct but we need to dissect it and consider the context.

On mortality rate of those infected, Trump stated:

" “I think the 3.4 percent number is really a false number,” Trump told Hannity. “Now, this is just my hunch but based on a lot of conversations … personally, I’d say the number is way under 1 percent.” "

My gosh: I had Trumpists from every corner of these threads of the calling me out as evil for touting a fatality rate in the range of 0.5% to 3% but lets move on. Things have evolved since then.

Rather than stupidly describing the WHO numbers as "Fake" Trump should have said the number is likely to be overstated because a large number of people with mild, moderate or indeed asymptomatic infection will elect to keep away from doctors and health authorities. People with mild to moderate symptoms will likely stay at home.

Some types of data from China are likely to be good. Data showing zero morality for kids under 10 is relevant. So is the 0.2% mortality rate for young people. The mortality rate rises to 3+% for over 50s and continues to rise to over 15% for over 80s. Maybe we could halve these numbers assuming over 50% of infected people with mild or moderate illness aren't recorded.

But lets move on. I read today that (as predicted) the virus has mutated into at least 2 different strains. A more severe strain labelled "L" and a less severe strain labelled "S". There could be additional strains out there IMHO and there is likely cross-immunity to some extent between strains. This maybe why some people who have recovered from one strain are seemingly testing positive. They've caught a different version. There is speculation about different animal sources but I won't go there for now.

So it's a bit of a race. Which strain will become dominant? The answer to that question will depend on the relative prospects of each strain in different conditions. I don't know which strain will emerge as initially prevalent in the US or Australia.

- In China, authorities may have limited the spread of the "L" strain and so the "S" strain becomes more dominant.
- In the absence of effective controls the "L" strain could be causing havoc in Iran and will likely spread through the ME IMHO.

Masks: Official advisories are wrong on this. That is a strong call coming from me. We are correctly told that most masks may not, by themselves prevent infection of the wearer. While this is trueany form of mask (bought or home made) will limit the wearer from spreading droplets filled with virus where ever they go. Masks should there for be compulsory in public areas and gatherings. Masks are easy to make so there shouldn't be a shortage. If you use washable materials a soak in laundry bleach solution will see them ready to be used again.

I could be wrong on parts of this but it does not make my assessment "fake". Trumpists need to stop calling out non-Trump views as fake, evil or hoaxes. Trumpists need to start thinking outside their respective toilet bowls and start examining analysing the actual data. If they explained their views on the basis of some evidence or analysis some credibility could be retained.

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OK Trumpists.

The actual mortality rate for those infected by COVID-19 in more developed countries is 0.5% (and perhaps a little more than that).

Looking at the Diamond Princess data and the age profile of those affected my initial hunch was that the mortality rate for those affected would be around this number or perhaps a little more. The population of those infected (around 600) was too small to draw a statistical inference with a reasonable level of confidence. We have moved on from there.

South Korea data is reliable

Of 4212 cases there have been 22 deaths so far. 22/4212 = 0.0052

There are a number of caveats.

Firstly the virus is only starting to spike in SK and it can take time to kill some victims. So 0.5% maybe on the low side.

Secondly there are different strains of the virus circulating. The so called "S" strain which is becoming more prolific in China (and I assume SK) maybe less lethal than the strain (possibly the "L" one) that is circulating in Iran.

Thirdly, SK has a solid medical infrastructure. Patients with severe illness who get oxygen and good care have a far better chance of survival and survival without permanent lung damage (fibrosis). A 3% + mortality rate in less developed countries or countries hit by economic sanctions may be reality in the very near future.

Here is the chart I relied upon.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1095848/south-korea-confirmed-and-suspected-coronavirus-cases/

There are other caveats to consider as well. Importantly a 0.5% mortality rate is terrible and the risk to older people and people who suffer from asthma and or post viral chest infections is much much higher.

Politicians who boast about these numbers, tout conspiracy theories or who do anything more than get people prepared are morons.