Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull says he won't break an election commitment to hold a national vote on same sex marriage and will pay more than $120 million to do so.
The Coalition will send its plebiscite bill back to a hostile senate this week, despite it facing an almost certain political death. It was rejected last year, and will likely be rejected again.
Should the Coalition manage to change the minds of Labor and the crossbench, then a national compulsory vote on same sex marriage would be held on November 25. That seems unlikely.
Knowing that, Mr Turnbull has announced a $122 million back up plan: a voluntary postal vote that could be issued as soon as September 12.
The votes would be due back by November 7, which gives about eight weeks to return papers. We would know the result, whether voluntary or compulsory, on November 25.
Mr Turnbull wants this dealt with by Christmas. That gives him a hard deadline of December 7 for a vote in Parliament, which is the last sitting day of the year.
Of course, it's never that easy. Same sex marriage advocates have promised to challenge a postal vote in the courts. Some in the Liberal party are worried about it's legitimacy too.
