Shortfalls in Scrap Will Challenge the Steel Industry | BCGThat...

Shortfalls in Scrap Will Challenge the Steel Industry | BCG



That boost in demand will in part be the result of scrap increasingly becoming a material of choice for steel production, especially as industries attempt to reduce carbon emissions from their raw materials. By volume, scrap will account for 50% of the global iron content in steel by 2030, up from 35% today. By that point, annual scrap consumption in both China and the US will likely be 40% to 50% higher than today, much of it to make more steel. And these increases in domestic demand for scrap by major steel producing countries will reduce the global scrap trade by about 15%. By 2030, today’s 9 million metric ton steel scrap surplus will become a 15 million metric ton deficit, further underscoring why neglecting the problem is not an option.

EAF operations—currently about 29% of steelmaking capacity—could surpass 41% by 2030, especially as new EAF plants open in Europe and China. Countries that import a higher percentage of their scrap needs will be meaningfully affected if they are unable to secure sufficient scrap of the required grades or ore-based metalics alternatives, such as pig iron,direct reduced iron (DRI), and hot briquetted iron (HBI). Certain high-growth markets, like India, remain particularly vulnerable. Moreover, there is growing interest in hydrogen-based direct-reduced iron (DRI) manufacturing processes which emit fewer greenhouse gases. When used as a feedstock in mini-mills, DRI can be combined with lower grades of scrap to produce quality steel."