Others have estimated that peads aGVHD approval will be worth...

Others have estimated that peads aGVHD approval will be worth around $4 in the MSB share price. I somewhat agree with this as a bare bones case.

It is interesting what happens in the build up to the FDA decision and ultimate approval news.

From some past history I have seen the SP build up to around 50% of the approval value on anticipation of approval - that would be around $2 in this current situation for where MSB are.

So could we see a $2 MSB SP hit in the next 3 or 4 months until FDA approval decision is handed down for aGVHD. History is a predictor of the future.

If we look at the scenario of a successful approval of Peads aGVHD around August this year. What happens then to the SP to close out the year after approval …we know there is an Adult aGVHD to start and may well be quite a short trial it seems and may be eligible for Accelerated Approval, but the key thing is that with Ryoncil approved most analysts and brokers will know it is quite close to a sure thing that the Adults aGVHD using the same Ryoncil approved product should achieve an easy approval…especially with the EAP use in adults data as know highly efficacious already…right.

In analysing the Adult use and short trial, That would in turn see the market start to heavily price in the value of Adult aGVHD - potentially up to 50% of the value again as you would expect with a potential AA or even just straight up off label use off the back of Ryoncil approval.

Adult aGVHD is 5 times the market of Peads so that is a SP value add of $20 - 50% of that is $10.

With a very forward looking market and a likely scenario of peads aGVHD approval in August do we then close out 2024 with a progressive and continued lift of the SP to price in 50% value of the Adult market - $4(Peads) + $10(50% Adult) = $14 MSB SP.

That’s also not even touching the off label use for Ryoncil and the analyst and brokers in the market also starting to higher price in likelihood of all MSB’s other therapies on the same MSC platform.(that’s a bunch of other calculations)

Do we dare to dream $14+ by EOY Dec 2024, just from the catalyst of our first Peads aGVHD approval. An exciting scenario.

The market is always 12 months forward looking so at Dec 2024 it will be pricing in expectation of MSB achievements by Dec 2025.

DYOR and not financial advice.