SSN 0.00% 1.5¢ samson oil & gas limited

Hi Cmon, I think our perspectives are a little different which...

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    Hi Cmon, I think our perspectives are a little different which makes for good balance discussion and these idea exchanges helps me heaps. Ultimately we don't have all the info so inevitably our numbers and interpretation have bias and I accept that includes me.

    FWIW I haven't said the numbers are great only that in the context of the low OP environment the report was good. An analogy would be F1 where the car goes slower in the wet than the dry. The car, driver, track, mechanics etc are all the same but the lap times are slower with the rain and wet tyres. The best drivers shine in difficult situations, same goes for mgt and imo any company that had production and was cash positive in Sept deserves some credit for the position they have attained.

    I'm not sure on the interest calc, in June the ratio was 17 and that looks like the ratio is related to the quarters EBITDA. That is the closest I could get using June as a guide. If that is correct I think the Sept was lower than your number and possibly -ve. It's only a guess though and to balance the comment had the derivative value held in balance sheet been realized I think it is possible things would of been ok. I recall in the June qtr the hedging was noted in the liquidity so possibly some timing delay occurred or change of plan?

    On December qtr I suspect if the numbers are same as Sept plus the hedging receipts then because the capex is low then the as long as price stays where it is the result would be manageable. Again not great but good and understandable under the circumstance.

    Overall I don't see much difference between $45wti and $55wti, even $60 as that means drilling becomes attractive, drilling brings risk and extra risk is bad atm imo. I think it is good to be planning for 2016 as planning doesn't cost much and the new projects may add some interest in the new year however atm my view is it's all about the cash and improving sentiment both ways between Shareholders/Market and Mgt.
    All my opinion only
    Cheers
    Last edited by Rob79: 19/11/15
 
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