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If the US is running at 4% growth & the labor market is...

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Daytr

4,486 Posts.

29/08/14

15:29

Post #: 13895571
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Originally posted by timber1956 ↑

Daytr

My quick eye ball reading of the Fed balance sheets...
http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h41/
... suggest that the Fed balance sheet has stopped growing and that QE (the Fed purchase of bonds from banks) finished for at least a month ago.

Lots of people make the mistake of assuming that when QE finished, US interest rates would rise. But US interest rates are not a function of QE. They are a function of the Fed Funds rate, and that hasn't changed.

I would not hold your breath waiting for US interest rates to rise, this year or next. The fact that bond rates have been falling indicates that the smart money understand this and are locking in positive carry.

I think that we are in for low interest rates for some time to come. I will leave you to decide what that might mean for the price of gold. But I don't think that it means very much at all.

Cheers

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If the US is running at 4% growth & the labor market is tightening I think the Fed will have no choice. My view of early next year is based on what I hear Yellen say & nothing else.
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