WA Gas Statement of Opportunities - WA gas market completely cooked in coming years

Potentially an opportunity for BRU to supply into the WA domgas market if the Rafael resource is very small (or if it is very big and we get hit with a 15% domgas reservation on an LNG project!).

Also by the way, as someone who works in WA in this industry myself: we're going to look like the eastern states with completely cooked domestic energy prices in the next few years unless some new domgas projects get up and running quicksmart. If you're building a new house at the moment, don't even both connecting gas and just stick some extra solar panels on the roof.

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2023-wa-gas-statement-of-opportunities-wa-gsoo.pdf (aemo.com.au)

AEMO’s 2022 WA GSOO identified a tight supply-demand balance for WA’s domestic gas market. AEMO’s 2023 forecasts for gas demand and supply look even tighter, increasing the opportunities for investment in new gas supply into the WA domestic market.

The WA domestic gas market is projected to be in deficit between 2024 and 2029, with potential supply from committed and expected projects up to 11% below forecast demand. There are options available to alleviate some of this shortfall, such as utilisation of gas in storage and the potential redirection of uncontracted liquefied natural gas (LNG). From 2030 onwards, further gas supplies are forecast to be required to meet increasing demand.

The outlook has three distinct phases:

• Potential gas supply is forecast to be 105 PJ short of domestic demand up to 2026. Additionally, flexibility is minimal – gas supply facilities are running close to, or at, capacity. This means that there is a risk of shortages in the event of supply outages or peaks in demand without corresponding responses from suppliers and consumers.
• Between 2027 and 2029, supply is forecast to grow as Scarborough, South Erregulla, Lockyer Deep, and Waitsia are expected to enter the domestic market. Demand continues to decline (due to decarbonisation) until 2027, but then steps up in 2028 as the Perdaman Karratha Urea project begins production. The market is 31 PJ short in this period.
• From 2030 onwards, the gas market is forecast to move into an increasing deficit, with deficits of over 100 TJ/day from 2031 (over 10% of demand each year). This is driven by coal generation retirements increasing the need for gas generation and a decline in production from existing gas fields, partially offset by increased renewable power generation and decarbonisation across the economy