Contrary to the discussions on radio sonde data being unreliable NOAA have carried out a reanalysis of all Radio Sonde data and calibrated it. NASA and NOAA have this water vapour data readily available for all to use. RS data is reliable and matches up with satellite data up to 8km.
After 8 km’s there is a dry bias and in one paper they state it has been found to be up to 8% out. Now that is a lot. However the WV is decreasing. The 8% error still cannot account for the decrease contrary to the IPCC mantra of increasing GHG’s. i.e. a dry bias that is decreasing still means one thing! That water vapour is decreasing. Don’t be fooled by the trickery that you are fed about increasing water vapour. It is false.
Surface obs of water vapour has only remained stable at best or more than likely decreased with the available data from 1940 onwards at the surface. Not the upper troposphere as the settled science states. NOAA have also commented on the decreasing water vapour by producing a paper on it (Susan Solomen).
Susan Solomon’ paper. http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2010/20100128_watervapor.html
Susan is a NOAA atmospheric chemist. Susan has also served the IPCC by authoring material for them.
Skeptical science (http://www.skepticalscience.com/print.php?r=136) acknowledge this paper and downplay it. (of course they would).
NOAA are happy with it. They would not have put it up otherwise.
Further to that NOAA have done exactly what the program has stated it has done. It has reanalyzed all the RS and adjusted.
So how does the stratosphere get its water vapour. By 2 methods transport of WV through the troposphere up to the stratosphere or by the oxidation of methane in the stratosphere. We know that methane has been increasing at an alarming rate. So it cannot be that. So it must be the significantly less transport of water vapour into the stratosphere. And that makes sense as a perusal of the water vapour at various altitudes has the WV decreasing. (Go Figure)
Ignore the BS about increasing GHG’s. it is a fallacy. It is just not HAPPENING.To further compliment this data is the amazingly coincidently increasing of OLR “outgoing longwave radiation.
OLR decreasing has been a cornerstone in the IPCC claim. There have been numerous claims about the empirical evidence stating so. Well that is just Baloney. Empirical evidence has had increasing since the mid 90’s. Coincidence?
So with this blanket of the most prolific of all GHGs decreasing. The infamous GHG blanket effect that traps Outgoing Longwave Radiation is not there. So IPCC theory would have it that without the blanket more OLR is finding its way to space. Well shock horror. What do we have. More OLR
Contrary to peoples here that it is just equilibrium. That is not the settled sciences view. Settled science has it stagnant from 2000 to 2050 and then increasing. Re the Warmist stalwart Trenberth.
" Only after about 2050 does the increase in temperature become large enough to overwhelm the increasing greenhouse effect (Figure 1) and by 2100, the mean integrated planetary warming due the longwave feedback plus forcing is near zero in most models"
So what is happening now is about 50 years to early. Or the warmies have just got it plain wrong in there models.
The last temp spike from 70s to mid 90's was majaroity AGW according to warmies here and the IPCC of course. But miraculously we have now attained this equilibrium. The only way equilibrium can be attained is if that agw spike of the late 20th century only contributed a minimal amount to the temp spike and the majority of the spike was mother nature. That is a more realistic approach to the olr increasing.
So in a nutshell. We have two aspects of global warming that are just plainly busted.
Neither Water Vapour or OLR are playing ball with the IPCC.
I have shown the surface obs below. Interesetingly the surface obs have no bearing on the GHG effect as the ghg effect takes affect up high. However interestingly even the surface water vapour readings have not increased. NOTE that there is no dispute or concerns on data on these lower levels.
Apologies about the varying text size. Cant work out why it did that. Typed it on word and just copy pasted..
