As a risk manager I have learnt there is no such thing as 100% certainly of something happening nor 0%
Based on a range of factors such as OSMR, the quality of the LG management team, the fact that LNG's future is based in NA, security of supply (KM) etc, I am thinking 9 out of 10.
There is much uncertainty ahead but LNGs strength will be the fact that LNG:
1) will be able to liquefy gas at a much lower cost than its competitors
2) does not own gas nor does it actually sell gas to its customers: it will merely liquefy the gas for a fee
3) LNGs business will be located in the US/Canada which not only ensures secure supply of gas but also happens to be in a part of the world that is politically stable.
4) The NA east coast is ideally located for the European market thus reducing shipping costs (Bear Head will be one day closer than Magnolia which is actually quite significant)
Will I have all my money tied up in LNG? Of course not, I am a risk manager, I therefore know I should not have all my eggs in one basket, but I will admit that my LNG basket is larger than the text book says it should be (then again it wasn't that way when I first invested in LNG).
This article is 'informative':
http://www.wallstreetdaily.com/2014...gn=20141022WSD&utm_medium=email&utm_source=OE
Go LNG!
