With a puff of smoke, ALP leader Bill Shorten will be gone

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    With a puff of smoke, ALP leader Bill Shorten will be gone: Peter Moore


    ALL is not going well in the federal Labor camp as the latest polls have revealed. Bill Shorten’s rating as preferred Prime Minister is on a downward trajectory, as he reaches a low of 15 per cent.

    Responses and reasons for this are sadly predictable — “The only poll that counts is on election day”, “Turnbull’s just riding the wave of an extended honeymoon period” and even “The only reason Turnbull is doing so well is because he’s not Tony Abbott”.
    Well I hate to tell you but that is so much drivel. The reason Bill is so far behind in the polls is because simply he is underperforming and has the electoral appeal of a ventriloquist’s dummy.
    Back in July I wrote:
    “When Bill Shorten was elected leader of the Labor Party, I was unsure whether or not he had the wherewithal to do the job, so I asked a number of people who know him well as to what I could expect.
    “The chorus was all in tune and reassuring: Intelligent, knowledgeable and with his finger on the pulse. Humorous, entertaining and the sort of person you’d be quite happy to share a drink with or sit next to at a dinner party.
    “Jeez, he must have had a charisma bypass since these people last talked to him. To be quite honest, if his performance since becoming leader is anything to go by, were I to be at the said dinner party I’d swap the place names and make sure I was sitting at the other end of the table to Bill.”

    Nothing has changed and he has consistently failed to engage the community with either his personality or his policies.
    Talking about Labor’s policies, despite being a supporter, I have no idea what they are.
    However in the past week I did note Bill was thinking of making cigarettes $40 a pack. Good one on how to alienate the heartland of your voting spectrum.

    Lower income, less educated people smoke more than higher income, better educated folks. Given Labor traditionally represents the lower end of the socio-economic scale, I can’t see this working out well for him.
    Will Shorten be the leader at the next election? Yes, is the short answer, and the reason has nothing to do with his ability to turn things around. Shorten will lead Labor into the next election because no one is going to put their hand up to oppose him.
    Aside from an unlikely cataclysmic mistake by Malcolm Turnbull, the Coalition is already home and hosed.
    No one capable of leading the Labor Party is going to pick up the mantle, lose the election and then reasonably expect to be Opposition Leader for four years. It doesn’t and won’t happen.
    Whoever is clutching the field marshal’s baton will wait for the inevitable loss before taking the reins.
    I also belong to that band of observers that considers a March election to be top of mind. Turnbull cannot go into the election after the Budget as it will almost certainly be harsh and will probably also reinforce the us-versus-them mentality.
    His best option is to feed the electorate copious quantities of options available without any firm commitments and when he wins claim a mandate for those economic options he always wanted.
    It is said all governments know how to fix the economic and social problems but what they haven’t figured out is how to win the next election after they’ve done so.
    On that basis, Turnbull will win next March’s election campaign against the slightly hapless Shorten. Looking on from stage left will be two or three Labor hopefuls who are no doubt planning their strategies and tactics.
    You’ve just gotta love politics.

    http://www.geelongadvertiser.com.au...e/news-story/81b09cd9ce969084d012a0fa9ec492ca
 
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