When did the company last publish an NPV value? Was it 2017? Are...

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nevcop

1,336 Posts.

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14/07/21

13:54

Post #: 54496526
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Originally posted by Tran: ↑

My readings, research, peer comparison and analysis on many mining stocks/projects have given me these general ratios:

1. Post-PFS, pre-BFS:

MC/NPV = around 20% (like GLN, LKE right now).

2. Add off-take agreement(s) to #1:
MC/NPV = around 25%-30%

3. Post-BFS, pre-construction:
MC/NPV = around 30%

4. Add off-take agreements to #3
MC/NPV = 30%-40%

5. Construction commencement, pre-production:

MC/NPV = around 40%-50%

Even if price of Fe62% is to fall back to long term AVERAGE of USD $100/ton which in my opinion is very unlikely. Corresponding Fe65% price would be around USD $120-$125/ton. With 250mil tons resource utilization,

NPV =(($120-$85)/10.40*$651mil + $1.651bil)*(250/201) = USD $3.84bil = AUD $5.12bil.

Even in this very conservative price estimate, a 20% MC/NPV is still above $1bil.

No one can stop the sp growth in the weeks and months ahead to make MC approach that 20% of NPV.

Sellers at the current sp or at even 50c later in the year are just purely brainless and outright stupid IMO.

Capping at 16c-17c to collect any shares left from these brainless sellers seems to be the theme of the day

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When did the company last publish an NPV value? Was it 2017?
Are you confident that your values for NPV will be in the same ballpark figure as what CAP themselves will come up with?
Have they stated any NPV figure recently? as I'm not aware of seeing it.

CAP Price at posting: 15.8¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
1 Upvote

0 Great analysis

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