UBS updated their projected SC6 pricing:
- 2027 = 1450 usd /t
- 2028 = 1588
- 2029 = 1599
- 2030 = 1639
Very good for WR1 if this is how things go, and a good chance their figures are too soft due to their aggressive and opaque supply model (doesn't make fully clear where supply growth will come from.)
Let's consider phase 1 of mining at Adina, which will target the high-grade near-surface parts of the Main Zone, maybe 20-30mt. Avg grade for that looks like it'll be >1.4%. We also know Renard, while designed for 2.2mtpa (the number usually cited) was upgraded to 2.6mtpa, and achieved this throughput in 2019.
2.6mtpa @ 1.4% grade and 75% recovery = 455ktpa SC6 equivalent
- H2 2027 -- (ramping) 100kt SC6 @ 800 opex and 1450 SC6 = 98m aud EBITDA
- 2028 -- (ramping) 300kt SC6 @ 775 opex and 1588 SC6 = 369m aud EBITDA
- 2029 -- 455kt SC6 @ 750 opex and 1599 SC6 = 577m aud EBITDA
- 2030 -- 455kt SC6 @ 750 opex and 1639 SC6 = 612m aud EBITDA
Looking pretty good, especially considering capex could be as low as ~200m aud (e.g. Renard purchase 62m aud + plant upgrade 70m + road share 68m)
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