(Its a long post, many don't like long posts. I am addressing a specific issue for one poster, so rest can ignore. Thanks)
Thanks for your post.
Sorry for the long post, I don't do many posts, so try to put all my thoughts into one. Also I don't like these slinging games, my experience says it leads nowhere, so this will be my last post on this topic, you may continue to post if you wish so.
I totally agree with you that my post may sound very arbitrary and pointless. I would also feel the same if I was looking thru your lens.
Just providing my context of how I approach things, may not be right, and could be another arbitrary/pointless exercise, but we all live for ourselves - and try to do things in a way we are comfortable.
And thanks for the sarcasm. When the good times are rolling, we take pleasure in so many different ways, especially when the money is coming in. When the situation is not good, we try our best to squeeze some pleasure by ridiculing others etc. I can understand. I have no problem with that.
So what is my lens and how it may be different from yours? I have been very clear in all my posts including my Weekly Reports that all my comments are for short-term trading. Short-term for me is usually between few days up to 3 months or so. Many times I have been called a "trader", word used in somewhat derogatory way. What people don't understand sometimes, or maybe understand but don't appreciate, is that all of us are here to make some coins. We all know that there are different ways to skin a cat. Maybe the type of knife I have goes for a different cut, but can still skin it.
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So what do I look for when I get in? I play two-prong. Once short-term trades looking for 30 to 40% gains. If going gets good, I will continue to hold and exit when I feel the price action is not looking good - another gut feeling, risk/reward thing. In last 4 months I had two big wins - WC8 and AZL - both around 150%. Its all documented in those threads, because I write when I buy, with price, and write when I sell with price. You may be surprised to see the words gut feel, risk/reward, feel something is happening etc littered on those posts. In last 4 months I had 2 good 40% gains. First time in September in Uranium stocks. Before yesterday, my portfolio was 60% Uranium. I got out of a fair few at around 40% gain. U stocks went ballistic on US yesterday night, so I could have waited, but I was happy with decent gain on large amount. I will still play, but with soft hands. In between I try to play Stage 1 hype, where many stocks make 100 to 300% in weeks, just on the hype. I get out before Stage 2 - which is reality/drill results etc.
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I understand fundamentals, appreciate it, but I know for someone to say a market cap is to be x dollars because of it, it may make sense but markets sometimes don't go on that. Eg LTR. Its market cap increased by few billion dollars because someone made an offer. Its market cap decreased by few billion dollars because someone took away an offer. Fundamental didn't change in a day, but huge change in market cap. Why? Because its not easy to determine what is a fair market cap, and more importantly, whether market will agree that it is a fair market cap. Markets sometimes goes on arbitrary/pointless way, same as my posts. I accept it rather than try to fight it.
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So what do I do? I follow price action. I stay in a stock if price action is good, otherwise exit. I know someone may say that then I cannot make big wins. Maybe not as big, but one reason I am in share market is because I did 25 bags on IMU and 20 bags on QPM sometime back, and its documented in those threads. So I now play level to level. So I was not holding all the time when many Li stocks were going ballistic, SYA/LTR/CXO/WR1/AZS etc. But I was playing time to time 30/40% gains etc. Eg WR1 I have played for a number of years, even remember buying at 19. I also remember selling at 240s. But they were not same stocks. If the going is good, someone may make say 500%, I might get only 300% as I exit and wait for next run. But its fine with me. But it makes a big difference if the going is bad. My last 3 trades on WR1 - one from 170 to 210 - I had written I will exit around 210, it went just slightly higher. My second last one was buy in 160s and sell in 160s, it went to 180 or so, I had said if 165 does not look like holding, I will exit. So break even. My last trade I bought at 130, it went upto 140s, I wrote I will exit if 130 does not look like holding. Again I exited on break even. So when it was rising, I still made gains, but not as good. But when it was falling, I lost nothing - and that is the key for me, to have the capital and play elsewhere. Idea is to minimise losses, for me its not about maximising profit. I know it may again look arbitrary and pointless, but as I said, I try to do what I am comfortable with.
Now to specific point you have raised. Yes, ALB is looking shaky. It is around 126 so hasn't broken thru the level. I will exit my Li stocks if it goes lower, but will also look at price action of each stock how they are faring, so it may not be a blanket sell, but definetly I will be very cautious and err to the side of selling rather than holding. If ALB goes towards 112 bottom, I will not buy then. There is a chance then it could lower. When it starts coming back, may then buy. Regarding GT1, I am playing for a price action. If 68 or so doesn't look like holding, then I may exit and wait. But sometimes stock markets run on sentiments. Currently sentiment is poor for Li stocks. But if it changes, for whatever reason, 30/40% gains could easily be made, irrespective of what fundamentals may be saying.. I will be playing for that.
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Hope you understand my point of view, but you don't need to. Only reason I wrote this was because you specifically replied to me. I forgot to mention that I also bought some LRS at 23 yesterday, playing for a rise towards 28. If 22 does not look like holding, I will exit and wait. I wish you well it whatever you do. All the best.
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