A tanking AUD is fairly significant. Not just due to the...

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Ewebute

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16/04/24

15:05

Post #: 73369920
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Originally posted by Esmer: ↑

ABS next CPI figures - Wednesday 24 April.
RBA next interest rate decision - Tuesday 7 May.

RBA
- Tasked with managing inflation - they keep interest rates low and inflation target high, while allowing themselves to borrow money to hold property portfolios. (IMO, a clear conflict of interest.) The result is that interest rates are too low and inflation is too high, and property prices go higher.
- Tasked with keeping employment high - too easy, has been higher than usual for a long time.
- Tasked with maintaining the value of the AUD (I assume that the RBA has this responsibility, but maybe nobody actually bothers doing this) - AUD is plummeting.

If inflation is now persistent, and property prices are still rising, and there is low unemployment, and the AUD is plummeting - I wonder what convenient excuse the RBA will find this time to justify keeping the interest rate on hold again instead of raising it. In my opinion, on its own the falling AUD should be sufficient reason to raise rates.

Lower AUD makes XJO shares cheaper for overseas investors. If RBA is forced to raise rates then AUD rises and XJO becomes more expensive which exerts downwards pressure, adding to the downward pressure from increasing finance costs for indebted companies, and downward pressure from reduced demand

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A tanking AUD is fairly significant. Not just due to the possibility of an interest rate decrease.

For me this suggests less demand for our materials especially IO. The fall coincides with materials sector falling, but has had a bit of a push over the last 2 weeks. I think this is a false push alongside commodities. Something likely to occur which stops China buying our stuff.. Those in the know are therefore dumping AUD in anticipation..

Last edited by Ewebute: 16/04/24

XJO Value at posting: 7,611.6
4 Upvote

0 Great analysis

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